question_text string | date_close string | event_date string | resolution_criteria string | question_type string | prediction_date string | correct_answer int64 | label_confidence float64 | resolution_date string | sample_id string | answer_type string | answer_parser_type string | reward_function_type string | prompt list | context list | reasoning_format_key string | parsed_answer string | tool_call_count int64 | reasoning string | all_messages string | rollout_id int64 | input_tokens int64 | output_tokens int64 | cost null | reward_score float64 | binary_brier_score float64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
We have context: High Court order on Nov 20 2025 cancelling default bail and ordering su... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,508 | 2,460 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.13 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' or similar official award before Feb 15 2026. Today is Nov 26 2025, so we have about 2.5 months (Nov 27 - Dec 31, plus Jan 1 - Feb 15).
We have con... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 915 | 754 | null | -0.139262 | 0.0169 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue a formal order for the return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026.
We have limited context: No news articles provided in prompt; on... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 496 | 884 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the shooting by Jan 15, 2026.
We have context: incident happened Nov 27, 2025 (today is Nov 27, 2025). So they have just arrested suspect. Articles say charges initially: as... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,248 | 1,402 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.45 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce forecast probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of USP by Jan 15 2026.
We need to reason based on context: but currently there is no context or news given, just placeholder "Recent news articles relevant to this qu... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 508 | 1,694 | null | -0.798508 | 0.3025 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.48 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that DHS or White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under Operation Allies Welcome before Feb 1 2026. So by that date.
We have context: Recent news gives impetus: after a shooting ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,322 | 1,050 | null | -0.733969 | 0.2704 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.23 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce a forecast probability that AP-Transco will create a dedicated SPV or new task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1, 2026. We have to rely on context, but the given context includes no news articles (the "NEWS:" section is empty). So we have ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 490 | 864 | null | -0.261365 | 0.0529 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will formally announce seeking death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court filing by March 1, 2026.
We have no context provided besides the question. No news list displayed, maybe blank. So we lack specific facts about case. We must rel... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 449 | 976 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.36 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to answer probability that DOJ will file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or § 2339B by February 20, 2026.
We have context: articles about shooting by Lakanwal on November 26, 2025. It's a recent inciden... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,440 | 1,680 | null | -0.446287 | 0.1296 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.07 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Governor of São Paulo (Tarcísio de Freitas) will appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026-2030 term. The context: It's an election on November 27, 2025. The governor appoints ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 729 | 1,745 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.62 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that by Jan 31, 2026, the Trump administration will issue an executive order or DHS directive explicitly mandating a re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration. We have context: multiple news articles from November 2025 descri... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,917 | 1,117 | null | -0.967584 | 0.3844 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that "Andhra King Taluka" will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025. The release date is November 27, 2025 (per multiple sources). So we have roughly 2 weeks (15 days) of box office. Need to assess likely total.
We have context: Articles abo... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,151 | 1,146 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that any of the four suspects (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) will be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15 2026. Today is Nov 27 2025, so about 1.5 months until close date.
We need to consider Ind... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 474 | 812 | null | -0.510826 | 0.16 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.92 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington DC will exceed 2,000 at any point before Jan 15, 2026, given today's date Nov 27 2025.
From context, many articles: As of early August (2025) deployment >2,200. Several articles (Nov 20, 2025... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,125 | 1,188 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 |
Will the National Guard troops deployed for law enforcement assistance in Washington D.C. be officially withdrawn from the city before December 31, 2025? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Department of Defense, the Department of the Army, or the White House announces the completion of the withdrawal of the federally deployed National Guard units (excluding the permanent D.C. National Guard) from the streets of Washington D.C. following the expiration of the judicial... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 7d859107-0993-462f-a694-cb5d397be289 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Exclusive: National Guard orders in DC extended through February 2026 (published on 2025-10-29 by cnn.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: National Guard troops mobilized in Washington, D.C. will remain through February 2026, according to ... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that National Guard troops deployed for law enforcement assistance in Washington D.C. will be officially withdrawn before Dec 31, 2025.
Context: Multiple articles about extensions through February 2026. Also judicial orders: A judge ordered end of deploymen... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,047 | 1,882 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will the Press Information Bureau (PIB) or the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) of India issue an official release announcing the inauguration of the Suvarna Thirtha Mantapa by Prime Minister Narendra Modi by November 30, 2025? | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal press release or official statement from the Press Information Bureau (pib.gov.in) or the Prime Minister's Office (pmo.gov.in) confirms that Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Suvarna Thirtha Mantapa at the Sri Krishna Mutt in Udupi on or before November 30, 2025. If... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | 8fe3310b-b635-47b9-a24c-8822a4710bdd | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Press Information Bureau PIB Suvarna Thirtha Mantapa inauguration release; Prime Minister's Office PMO Suvarna Thirtha Mantapa inauguration; Narendra Modi inaugurates Suvarna Thirtha Mantapa PIB; Suvarna Thirtha Mantapa inaugurat... | strategy_choice | 0.27 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Press Information Bureau or PMO will issue an official release announcing inauguration of Suvarna Thirtha Mantapa by PM Modi by Nov 30, 2025. Today is Nov 27, 2025. The question is about an event that would happen imminently (within 3 days) and about of... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 495 | 794 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 |
Will D.K. Shivakumar be sworn in as the Chief Minister of Karnataka between November 28, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if D.K. Shivakumar takes the official oath of office as the Chief Minister of Karnataka at any point during the period starting November 28, 2025, and ending at 11:59 PM IST on February 15, 2026. Otherwise, the question resolves to 'No'. Resolution will be determined by news reports from ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | b0d11b8c-f93e-4cb0-94ad-d8447e214826 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Siddu vs D.K. once more (published on 2025-11-23 by sundayguardianlive.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Karnataka's Congress power struggle between CM Siddaramaiah and PCC chief D.K. Shivakumar continues, despite Siddaramaiah completin... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that D.K. Shivakumar will be sworn in as CM of Karnataka between Nov 28 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
Context: there is internal power struggle within Karnataka Congress between current CM Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM D.K. Shivakumar. Several articles talk about speculation of a... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,540 | 1,463 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will the United States government and the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan publicly announce a formal agreement for the United States to regain military access to Bagram Airbase before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of State, the White House, or the official spokesperson of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban) publicly announces a signed agreement or memorandum of understanding that grants the U.S. military the right to station personnel or conduct operations at Bagram... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | ba88f3d1-4446-4075-9327-71d135298b35 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] How the Bagram airbase from the 1950s is geopolitically significant in the 21st century (published on 2025-10-28 by theprint.in) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Days after Trump demanded the Taliban hand back the Bagram airbase or face \"b... | strategy_choice | 0.07 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability that US and Taliban publicly announce a formal agreement for US to regain military access to Bagram Airbase before March 1, 2026. Today is Nov 27, 2025, about 3 months to March 2026.
Context: recent news: article about Trump demanding Taliban hand back Bagram.... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 822 | 1,066 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice announce a formal charge of 'Providing material support to terrorists' (18 U.S.C. § 2339A or § 2339B) against the suspect in the November 2025 D.C. National Guard shooting before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) or the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia issues a press release, indictment, or court filing explicitly charging the suspect associated with the November 26/27 shooting near Farragut Square with 18 U.S.C. § 2339A or § 2339B. If the s... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | c67ffc91-8707-45a1-9d2b-6cdb84d812fd | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] GOP lawmakers long warned of security risks of Biden-era Afghan resettlement program used by alleged National Guard shooter (published on 2025-11-26 by nypost.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, allegedly shot tw... | strategy_choice | 0.2 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that DOJ will announce a formal charge of providing material support to terrorists (18 USC 2339A or B) against the suspect (Rahmanullah Lakanwal) before Feb 1 2026. Today is Nov 27 2025. The shooting happened November 26/27. The suspect is in custody. So timeline roughl... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,126 | 1,853 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 |
Will a major OTT platform (such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, or Disney+ Hotstar) officially announce the digital streaming release date for 'Andhra King Taluka' by December 25, 2025? | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if any major global streaming service or the film's official production social media handles publish a specific date for the film's OTT premiere by December 25, 2025. This includes cases where the film is already streaming by this date. If no streaming release date has been officially con... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | cd02c4e6-b011-4065-9a0b-af21f2887aab | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Telugu rom-com Andhra King Taluka official release date announced. Where to watch Ram Pothineni's movie af (published on 2025-11-26 by m.economictimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni and Bhagyashri Borse star in \"Andhra... | strategy_choice | 0.73 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that a major OTT platform (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney+ Hotstar) will officially announce the digital streaming release date for 'Andhra King Taluka' by Dec 25, 2025. Criteria: "any major global streaming service or the film's official production soc... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,401 | 1,569 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed to the District of Columbia exceed 3,000 at any point before January 1, 2026? | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if an official statement from the Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the White House confirms that the total number of National Guard troops on active deployment within the District of Columbia has reached at least 3,001. The baseline in the seed text is 2,200 with an addi... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | d0f06bff-c6d2-4c57-a78f-9d06a56c50a8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Judge orders an end to Trump's troop deployment in D.C., calling it 'unlawful' (published on 2025-11-20 by npr.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A federal judge ordered an end to the monthslong National Guard deployment in Washington, D... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that total National Guard troops deployed to DC will exceed 3,000 at any point before Jan 1 2026.
Context: Base deployment: 2,200 with additional 500 requested (makes 2,700). Several articles give numbers: as of November 2025, over 2,100; nearly 2,400; 2,18... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,065 | 771 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 |
Will Siddaramaiah be the Chief Minister of Karnataka on February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Siddaramaiah remains the incumbent Chief Minister of Karnataka as of 11:59 PM IST on February 15, 2026. If he has resigned, been removed, or another person has been sworn in as Chief Minister before this time, the question resolves to 'No'. Verification will be based on official govern... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | e012f5a5-0744-4afd-af48-1324e1581faa | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Congress high command has to put full stop on CM change confusion: Siddaramaiah | India News (published on 2025-11-25 by hindustantimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Amid speculation over a possible CM change in Karnataka's ruling C... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability Siddaramaiah will be Chief Minister of Karnataka on Feb 15, 2026. Context: As of November 2025, he's CM. There is speculation about a change, with Deputy CM DK Shivakumar possibly aspiring to become CM. High command says decision rests with them; no official... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,228 | 1,159 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 |
Will the Trump administration formally suspend or terminate the 'Operation Allies Welcome' parole program before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal executive order, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) memorandum, or official White House statement is issued between November 27, 2025, and February 1, 2026, explicitly stating that the 'Operation Allies Welcome' program, or the processed parole status associated with it for... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | e3710ed9-b31b-4999-826e-4865b3e2740f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Alleged DC shooter entered US under Afghan resettlement push Mayorkas vowed would be done 'swiftly and safely' (published on 2025-11-26 by foxnews.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: DHS under President Joe Biden promised to \"swiftly and... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that the Trump administration will formally suspend or terminate the Operation Allies Welcome parole program before Feb 1, 2026.
We have context: Today is Nov 27 2025. We are in Trump administration (the second Trump term presumably started Jan 2025?). The ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,555 | 1,266 | null | -1.108663 | 0.4489 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice bring federal terrorism charges against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in the District of Columbia before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a federal indictment or criminal complaint is filed against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a U.S. District Court (specifically for the District of Columbia) that includes charges under U.S. Code Title 18, Chapter 113B (Terrorism) on or before February 1, 2026. If the suspect dies or is only c... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-09T00:00:00 | fb0aae08-0f69-4931-afdb-6b866bb330d7 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Member Dies, Other in Critical Condition After Shooting: What to Know (published on 2025-11-26 by time.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: A West Virginia National Guard member, Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe, died and Specialist ... | strategy_choice | 0.6 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will bring federal terrorism charges (federal indictment/complaint in D.C. district court under Title 18 Chapter 113B) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal before Feb 1, 2026.
We have context: news articles from Nov 26, 2025 reporting shooting, suspect ide... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,235 | 1,220 | null | -0.916291 | 0.36 |
Will Siddaramaiah resign or be removed from his position as the Chief Minister of Karnataka before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Siddaramaiah officially vacates the office of Chief Minister of Karnataka, either through resignation or dismissal, between November 28, 2025, and January 31, 2026. This will be verified by official releases from the Governor's office or major national Indian news platforms. If he rema... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 0149f37f-2d05-4ae1-b578-72b3e175a876 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Karnataka CM tussle: DK Shivakumar stresses 'keeping promises' (published on 2025-11-27 by thefederal.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Amid a Karnataka Congress leadership tussle over the CM post, Deputy CM and state party chief DK Shi... | strategy_choice | 0.62 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Siddaramaiah will resign or be removed before Feb 1 2026, i.e., between Nov 28 2025 and Jan 31 2026. We have context: multiple news articles about internal power struggle between Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM DK Shivakumar, revolving around a purported pow... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,353 | 1,470 | null | -0.967584 | 0.3844 |
Will the State Government of Assam issue a state-wide notification banning the use of all loudspeakers and firecrackers after 10:00 PM across all districts before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the Government of Assam publishes an official notification or directive through the Home Department or the Department of Environment and Forests that applies a state-wide ban (all districts) on loudspeakers and firecrackers after 10:00 PM, mimicking the Jorhat district order. The announ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 081dfd6a-0cd0-495c-9872-a25dff70d7ef | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Assam state government notification ban loudspeakers after 10 pm firecrackers; Assam District Magistrate order loudspeakers firecrackers 10:00 PM; Assam firecracker ban order February 2026 loudspeakers; Assam police guidelines us... | strategy_choice | 0.31 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Assam state government will issue a state-wide notification banning loudspeakers and firecrackers after 10pm across all districts before Feb 15 2026.
We need to consider context: no explicit context provided (news section empty). So we must rely on gen... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 504 | 1,761 | null | -0.371064 | 0.0961 |
Will federal prosecutors file charges of 'providing material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization' (18 U.S.C. § 2339B) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal by February 28, 2026? | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or criminal complaint is filed in a U.S. District Court charging Rahmanullah Lakanwal with a violation of 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Material Support to Terrorists) or a related federal terrorism enhancement by February 28, 2026. It resolves to No if he is charged only with... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 48cf18fa-ff69-407e-87fb-b838c0f7c9c9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] An Afghan national who previously worked with the CIA named as suspect in DC National Guard shooting. Here's what we know (published on 2025-11-27 by cnn.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: A gunman, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, shot two West Vi... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that by Feb 28 2026 federal prosecutors will file charges under 18 U.S.C. §2339B against Rahmanullah Lakanwal. We have context: shooting occurred Nov 26 2025. He is an Afghan national, previously worked with CIA. The news mentions prosecutors plan to charge ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,280 | 1,364 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will the State of Punjab or the Union Territory of Chandigarh file an appeal in the Punjab and Haryana High Court seeking the death penalty for Monu Kumar by February 28, 2026? | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the prosecution (representing the State or UT administration) files a formal appeal/petition for enhancement of the sentence from life imprisonment to the death penalty against Monu Kumar in the Punjab and Haryana High Court in relation to the 2010 MBA student rape-murder case. This must... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 689f1bb6-52ab-457e-b41e-e4d4f95e35de | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Monu Kumar appeal death penalty Punjab Haryana High Court; State of Punjab death penalty appeal Monu Kumar February 2026; Chandigarh administration death penalty appeal Monu Kumar; Monu Kumar case deadline appeal Supreme Court or... | strategy_choice | 0.02 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that the State of Punjab or UT Chandigarh files an appeal to death penalty for Monu Kumar in Punjab and Haryana High Court by Feb 28 2026.
We need to consider context. However context given only says "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" b... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 465 | 1,037 | null | -0.020203 | 0.0004 |
Will the Government of Tamil Nadu officially expand the 'Magalir Vidiyal Payanam' (free bus travel for women) scheme to include private mofussil buses by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Tamil Nadu state government issues an official Government Order (GO) or a formal policy announcement by the Minister of Transport or Chief Minister stating that the free bus travel scheme for women is extended to privately operated mofussil or stage-carriage buses. Currently, it ap... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 68f8b093-0021-4e07-b475-c496d5b8f6b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Using SHGs IDs women can carry goods up to 25kg for free in government buses: Udhayanidhi Stalin (published on 2025-11-22 by thehindu.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin inaugurated Saras Mela–2025... | strategy_choice | 0.2 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Tamil Nadu government will expand "Magalir Vidiyal Payanam" free bus travel for women to include private mofussil buses by 1 Feb 2026. Current scheme applies to government-run TNSTC ordinary town buses. No mention of extension. Articles discuss large up... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,028 | 1,121 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington D.C. for the immigration and crime crackdown mission exceed 3,500 by December 31, 2025? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Department of Defense, National Guard Bureau, or the White House officially announces or reports that the total number of National Guard members deployed in Washington D.C. as part of the mission mentioned in the seed text (a federalized law enforcement/immigration crackdown mission)... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 69585c9e-afa5-48fb-9a84-6c48f66570a9 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Two National Guard members in critical condition after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by bbc.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Two National Guard soldiers were critically injured in a targeted shooting near the White... | strategy_choice | 0.14 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington D.C. for immigration and crime crackdown mission will exceed 3,500 by Dec 31, 2025. Current reported around 2,700 (2,200 existing + 500 ordered). There are legal challenges: Federal judge bloc... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,144 | 1,096 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 |
Will the Tamil Nadu State Transport Corporation (TNSTC) Salem division announce the addition of at least 50 more BS-VI or electric buses to its fleet before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Tamil Nadu State Transport Corporation, the Ministry of Transport, or reported by a major news outlet (e.g., The Hindu, Times of India, Indian Express) stating that the Salem division has been allocated or has inducted at least 50 new BS-VI or elect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 887e756c-6992-43da-aef5-0b78c816d669 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ashok Leyland Reports 16% Growth in October Sales, Surpassing Market Expectations (published on 2025-11-01 by scanx.trade) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Ashok Leyland reported October sales of 17,820 vehicles, up 16% year-on-year and abo... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Tamil Nadu State Transport Corporation (TNSTC) Salem division announces addition of at least 50 more BS-VI or electric buses to its fleet before Feb 15 2026.
We have context: only one news article about Ashok Leyland sales up 34% in bus segment, publis... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 668 | 1,195 | null | -0.287682 | 0.0625 |
Will the Victorian Office of Public Prosecutions or the Department of Justice and Community Safety formally initiate breach proceedings against Adam Winmar regarding his Community Correction Order before February 26, 2026? | 2026-02-26T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between the sentencing date of November 28, 2025, and February 26, 2026, a formal application to breach Adam Winmar's Community Correction Order (imposed by Justice Michael Croucher in the Supreme Court of Victoria) is filed or if a warrant is issued for his arrest due to a breach of ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-26T00:00:00 | a32178d7-32ef-4917-92a8-4dfbc7a4f74f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Adam Winmar breach proceedings Community Correction Order; Victorian Office of Public Prosecutions breach proceedings Adam Winmar; Department of Justice and Community Safety breach of Community Correction Order Adam Winmar; \"Com... | strategy_choice | 0.07 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Victorian Office of Public Prosecutions (OPP) or Department of Justice and Community Safety (DJCS) formally initiates breach proceedings against Adam Winmar regarding his Community Correction Order (CCO) before Feb 26 2026.
We have context: "Recent new... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 510 | 851 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 |
Will the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announce a formal revision or new restrictive guidelines specifically for 'State Government Guarantees' regarding off-budget borrowings before January 30, 2026? | 2026-01-30T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the RBI issues an official circular, notification, or Master Direction between the present date and January 30, 2026, that explicitly introduces new restrictions or a tightened ceiling on the volume of guarantees state governments can provide for off-budget entities. This must be documen... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-30T00:00:00 | a4440493-9bb7-4afe-8e6e-e8422bce37b8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "RBI State Government Guarantees off-budget borrowings guidelines; RBI formal revision restrictive guidelines state government guarantees; RBI circular state government guarantees off-budget borrowing ceiling; RBI off-budget borro... | strategy_choice | 0.45 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that RBI will announce a formal revision or new restrictive guidelines specifically for 'State Government Guarantees' regarding off-budget borrowings before Jan 30 2026. Today is Nov 28 2025. So about 14 months window.
We need to use context: none provided ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 454 | 1,096 | null | -0.597837 | 0.2025 |
Will a bill that specifically exempts all individuals earning less than $200,000 annually from federal income tax be passed by the U.S. House of Representatives by February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. House of Representatives votes to pass a bill containing language that sets the federal income tax rate to zero or provides a full exemption for all individual filers earning less than $200,000 per year. Verification will be through official Congressional records (congress.gov... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | b309f19a-116d-4221-99ad-2929758a705e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 7 Ways the Big Beautiful Bill Cuts Taxes for the Rich (published on 2025-11-20 by americanprogress.org) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: The \"Big Beautiful Bill\" (BBB) would cut taxes $4.5 trillion over a decade, mostly benefiting the top... | strategy_choice | 0.07 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that a bill specifically exempting all individuals earning less than $200k from federal income tax will be passed by the House by Feb 15 2026.
We have context: recent news about “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) signed July 4 2025, very big tax cut for rich. ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,518 | 928 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 |
Will the Indian microfinance industry's total Gross Loan Portfolio (GLP) exceed Rs 3.60 lakh crore as of December 31, 2025? | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the total value of the Indian microfinance sector's Gross Loan Portfolio (GLP) is officially reported as being greater than Rs 3.60 lakh crore for the quarter ending December 31, 2025. This will be verified using the MFIN Micrometer report or the CRIF High Mark credit bureau report relea... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-13T00:00:00 | bfedbd89-7028-4726-a2e5-72d7571e805a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] CreditAccess Grameen Reports Q2 Results: Rising Credit Costs Amid Robust Disbursements (published on 2025-11-02 by scanx.trade) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: CreditAccess Grameen's Q2 performance showed strong growth but rising credit co... | strategy_choice | 0.42 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Indian microfinance industry's total GLP exceeds Rs 3.60 lakh crore as of Dec 31 2025. Use context: we have latest news about CreditAccess Grameen, a microfinance NBFC. The news says GLP reached INR 25,904 crore (which is 0.259 lakh crore) for that firm... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 917 | 944 | null | -0.544727 | 0.1764 |
Will the United States federal government authorize the first 'tariff dividend' payments of at least $2,000 to eligible individuals by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a federal law is enacted or an executive action is finalized that officially authorizes and sets a disbursement date for direct payments of at least $2,000 per person labeled as a 'tariff dividend' or 'tariff rebate' to eligible US citizens. The resolution is based on public announceme... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | caffd1aa-5aad-4f14-b8fc-4dc5b8568667 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump asked again when 'moderate income' families will get $2,000 tariff dividend checks (published on 2025-11-17 by foxbaltimore.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump again said the U.S. may issue $2,000 \"tariff dividend\" checks fu... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that US federal government authorizes first tariff dividend payments of at least $2,000 to eligible individuals by Feb 1, 2026.
Date today is Nov 28, 2025. So within ~2 months. Actually Feb 1, 2026 is about 2 months away. We have news articles indicating Tr... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,211 | 1,051 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 |
Will the President of India issue a proclamation under Article 356 of the Indian Constitution to impose President's Rule in the state of Karnataka on or before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal notification or proclamation is issued by the President of India (typically via the Ministry of Home Affairs) to impose President's Rule in Karnataka at any time between November 28, 2025, and the end of day February 15, 2026. This must be a dismissal or suspension of the stat... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d38fc1f3-3177-44f3-9826-5d7bed082fa2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Kar HC: Defamation case over Sister-in-Law's fake social media accounts sticks| SCC Times (published on 2025-11-14 by scconline.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Karnataka High Court dismissed a petition under Section 482 CrPC seeking t... | strategy_choice | 0.07 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability that President of India will issue President's Rule in Karnataka between 28 Nov 2025 and 15 Feb 2026. We have very limited context: only a defamation case news about Karnataka High Court. Nothing about political instability. Need to consider historical frequenc... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 689 | 991 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a motion seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court on or before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a formal notice of intent to seek the death penalty (Death Penalty Notice) is filed by federal prosecutors in the case against Rahmanullah Lakanwal for the November 2025 shootings near the White House. While Attorney General Bondi currently mentions 'life in prison at a minimum,' the dea... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | e07e6225-1dd9-4d05-9ec1-f5917339c777 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom dead after DC shooting: 'Highly respected' (published on 2025-11-27 by foxnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: National Guard member Sarah Beckstrom, 20, of West Virginia, died after she and anoth... | strategy_choice | 0.75 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will file a death penalty notice in federal court on or before Feb 15, 2026.
Context: Articles. Article 1 says Attorney General Pam Bondi said "the Justice Department would pursue the death penalty against Lakanwal." Actually the article states: "A... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,006 | 1,297 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 |
Will the Trump administration officially suspend the entry of all new applicants under the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the President of the United States or the U.S. Department of State issues an official executive order, memorandum, or public statement explicitly suspending the processing or entry of all new applicants for the Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) program on or before February 1, 2026. I... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-28T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | fec6470d-e626-4cf7-aa14-f0267eacaeb0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump orders green card review after National Guard DC shooting (published on 2025-11-27 by usatoday.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump directed USCIS to conduct a full-scale review of green cards held by \"every alien from every c... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Trump administration will officially suspend entry of all new applicants under Afghan SIV program before Feb 1, 2026.
We have context: Trump is back in office now (2025). Recent news articles (Nov 2025) show Trump ordered suspension/pausing of immigrat... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,078 | 1,511 | null | -1.049822 | 0.4225 |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu resign from the position of Prime Minister of Israel before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu formally submits his resignation as Prime Minister of Israel and it is accepted or takes effect on or before 11:59 PM UTC on January 31, 2026. This includes resignations as part of a plea deal or pardon agreement. The resignation must be published by the Israeli Gover... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 0abff81d-86b9-4d34-8e0c-7037f9c1f13d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] U.S.-Israeli Relations Are Undergoing a Profound Shift (published on 2025-11-13 by carnegieendowment.org) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Trump is using U.S. leverage to support Benjamin Netanyahu, including pressuring him to accept Trump'... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Netanyahu resigns as PM before Feb 1 2026. Context: As of Nov 30 2025, he's still PM, facing corruption trial (cases 4000, 1000, 2000). Recent news: Trump is intervening, urging pardon. US support might help him. However, internal political situation: O... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,523 | 1,347 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 |
Will Israeli President Isaac Herzog grant a pardon to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before January 1, 2026? | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if President Isaac Herzog officially grants a pardon to Benjamin Netanyahu for any or all of the criminal charges he currently faces (Cases 1000, 2000, and 4000) on or before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2025. The pardon must be confirmed by an official statement from the Office of the Pre... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 66c23f1a-e2a6-4664-aa3f-b2b009bb079b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump's pressure, an old precedent and Netanyahu: President Herzog's pardon dilemma (published on 2025-11-13 by ynetnews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: U.S. President Donald Trump sent a letter pressuring Israel's President Isaac Her... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Israeli President Isaac Herzog will grant a pardon to PM Benjamin Netanyahu before Jan 1 2026 (i.e., by end of 2025). We have context: many news articles (Nov 12-13 2025) about Trump urging pardon, Herzog's statements that formal request needed and that... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,134 | 1,219 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu officially resign from the office of Prime Minister of Israel before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Benjamin Netanyahu formally submits his resignation as Prime Minister to the President of Israel, or if his resignation otherwise takes legal effect according to the Basic Law: The Government, resulting in his departure from the role before 11:59 PM UTC on March 1, 2026. Merely announc... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | af2708c5-ce5a-4c4c-a909-012fd3c18b00 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer resigns from ministerial post (published on 2025-11-11 by timesofisrael.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer submitted his resignation letter to Prime Minister Benjamin N... | strategy_choice | 0.14 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Predict probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will officially resign as PM before March 1, 2026 given date is Nov 30 2025. Need to estimate probability.
We have context: Recent news articles about political crisis, coalition issues, but nothing about resignation. The key is actual... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,483 | 1,176 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli State Attorney's Office publicly announce a signed plea bargain agreement in his ongoing corruption trial before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before 11:59 PM UTC on February 1, 2026, a formal plea agreement signed by both Benjamin Netanyahu and the State Attorney's Office (or an authorized representative of the Ministry of Justice) is publicly announced by the Israeli Ministry of Justice, the Prime Minister's Office, ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-30T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | b171b0a6-a943-4c3c-bf03-fee9cf64ef0b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Poll: 42% of Israelis prefer Netanyahu over Bennett for PM; 32% think he should take plea deal and retire (published on 2025-11-13 by timesofisrael.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: A Channel 12 poll says 42% of Israelis prefer Benjamin... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that a public announcement of a signed plea bargain agreement between Netanyahu and Israeli State Attorney's Office will occur before Feb 1, 2026.
Context: ongoing corruption trial. There's political pressure. Poll shows 32% think ideal outcome is plea deal ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,209 | 901 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 |
Will the Karnataka State Government announcement a new district-wide ban on sand mining in Udupi district before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 1, 2025, and February 1, 2026, the Government of Karnataka or the Udupi District Administration issues a formal notification or executive order declaring a complete moratorium or new ban on all sand mining activities within the Udupi district. This must be reported by... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 1f9971e2-8fca-4096-b31c-ee43bb5cbe90 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Udupi district sand mining ban announcement Karnataka government; Karnataka new district ban sand mining Udupi February 2026; Karnataka sand mining ban district-wide notification Udupi date; Udupi sand mining illegal mining crack... | strategy_choice | 0.08 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to answer: Will Karnataka State Government announce a new district-wide ban on sand mining in Udupi district before Feb 1, 2026? Today is Dec 1, 2025. So between now and Feb 1, 2026. That's about 2 months. Need to forecast probability.
We have no context news provided. Apparently ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 484 | 1,149 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 |
Will the United States and India officially sign a comprehensive or limited bilateral trade agreement before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if an official trade agreement (either a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement or a limited 'mini-deal') is formally signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Indian governments between December 1, 2025 and February 14, 2026. This must be confirmed by an of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2026-02-07T00:00:00 | 431d470b-235a-44d4-9a07-4d894eb2e262 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Resilient domestic economy gives India space to negotiate U.S. trade deal, sources say (published on 2025-11-20 by reuters.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: India's stronger domestic economy and a smaller-than-expected export hit from n... | strategy_choice | 0.65 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that US and India will officially sign a bilateral trade agreement (either comprehensive or limited) between Dec 1, 2025 and Feb 14, 2026. Context:
We have many news articles from Nov 2025 indicative of progress, optimism, statements about possibly sign befo... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,292 | 1,036 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 |
Will the Goa State Election Commission or the Goa Home Department officially announce the transfer or suspension of the Canacona Police Inspector before January 19, 2026? | 2026-01-19T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 1, 2025, and January 18, 2026, a government official or agency (such as the State Election Commission or Goa Police) publicly announces that the Police Inspector (PI) currently stationed at Canacona has been transferred or suspended following the internal review of th... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-18T00:00:00 | 4ad39315-083b-4f11-9135-850846ef2bf6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Goa State Election Commission official announcement transfer suspension Canacona Police Inspector; Goa Home Department transfer suspension Canacona Police Inspector; Canacona Police Inspector suspended transferred Goa Home Depart... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Goa State Election Commission or Goa Home Department will officially announce the transfer or suspension of a Canacona Police Inspector before Jan 19 2026, i.e., between Dec 1 2025 and Jan 18 2026.
We have no specific news context; placeholder says "Re... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 480 | 963 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will at least three additional Indian States or Union Territories (excluding West Bengal and Ladakh) officially rename their Raj Bhavan or Raj Niwas to 'Lok Bhavan' or 'Lok Niwas' by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 1, 2025 and February 1, 2026, the official offices or state governments of at least three Indian States or Union Territories (other than West Bengal and Ladakh) issue an official notification, gazette, or public announcement through official social media or press rele... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 5028276e-fafb-4a98-8c39-a07a9ee61f4a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Raj Bhavan turns Lok Bhavan: Centre orders nationwide renaming of Governors' residences (published on 2025-11-30 by dtnext.in) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Union Home Ministry has ordered all States and Union Territories to rename G... | strategy_choice | 0.8 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that at least three additional Indian states or UTs (excluding West Bengal and Ladakh) will officially rename their Raj Bhavan/Raj Niwas to Lok Bhavan/Lok Niwas by Feb 1, 2026, i.e., within about 2 months (Dec 1 2025 to Feb 1 2026). Context: A Union Home Mini... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,934 | 1,090 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 |
Will the Goa State Election Commission issue a formal Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) regarding sound system permissions for Zilla Panchayat election campaigning by January 20, 2026? | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Goa State Election Commission publishes a new or updated set of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) or formal guidelines that specifically clarify whether sound system permissions are required for meetings held in halls during Zilla Panchayat (ZP) campaigns. This must be verifiabl... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-20T00:00:00 | 50db42ae-7db9-477a-bcc8-c04938e74ce6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Goa State Election Commission SOP sound system permissions Zilla Panchayat election campaigning; Goa State Election Commission sound system permissions election campaigning order SOP; Goa zilla panchayat elections sound system pe... | strategy_choice | 0.45 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Goa State Election Commission (SEC) will issue a formal SOP about sound system permissions for Zilla Panchayat election campaigning by Jan 20, 2026.
We have no specific context provided beyond "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 472 | 942 | null | -0.597837 | 0.2025 |
Will the White House Correspondents' Association (WHCA) issue a formal written statement condemning Donald Trump's treatment of female reporters before January 1, 2026? | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if, between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, the WHCA board or president releases an official statement, press release, or open letter via their official website (whca.press) or verified social media channels specifically criticizing Donald Trump's rhetoric or behavior toward female... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 56c8eb74-bec8-4509-9e46-e0e3849b154c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] White House Tries to Defend Donald Trump's 'Piggy' Insult (published on 2025-11-18 by thedailybeast.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The White House defended President Donald Trump after he insulted Bloomberg White House correspondent ... | strategy_choice | 0.34 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that WHCA will issue a formal written statement condemning Trump's treatment of female reporters before Jan 1 2026 (i.e., December 2025). The context: recent incidents November 2025 - Trump's repeated insults toward female reporters. Several articles note WH... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,165 | 956 | null | -0.415515 | 0.1156 |
Will the Maharashtra state government or Nanded district authorities announce a financial compensation package of at least 800,000 INR for the family of Saksham Tate before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if an official announcement is made by the Government of Maharashtra, the District Collector's office, or the Social Justice and Special Assistance Department explicitly granting a compensation amount (ex gratia) of 8.25 lakh INR (the standard for murder under the SC/ST Act) or higher to ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-07T00:00:00 | 5795a964-d755-4ac2-8c0b-a2cd4416cb84 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'Even In His Death, Our Love Won...': Maharashtra Woman Marries Dead Partner After Honour Killing By Father (published on 2025-11-30 by news.abplive.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: In Maharashtra's Nanded district, 21-year-old Aanchal... | strategy_choice | 0.28 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: estimate probability that Maharashtra state government or Nanded district authorities announce a financial compensation package of at least 800,000 INR for the family of Saksham Tate before Feb 1, 2026.
We have one news article (Nov 30, 2025) about the honour killing. No mention... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 669 | 1,192 | null | -1.272966 | 0.5184 |
Will the Rajasthan state government announce a state-wide mandatory re-verification or audit of all disability pension recipients (Divyang Pension) before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Government of Rajasthan, through the Department of Social Justice and Empowerment or a cabinet-level announcement, officially mandates a state-wide (covering all districts) physical or documentary re-verification process for all current disability pension beneficiaries. This must b... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 60f9fa47-952f-4b9c-a8a9-962248ac0856 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rajasthan disability pension re-verification audit announcement; Rajasthan Divyang Pension verification state-wide; Rajasthan government mandatory audit disability pension recipients date; Rajasthan pension fraud misappropriation... | strategy_choice | 0.32 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Rajasthan state govt will announce a state-wide mandatory re-verification/audit of all disability pension recipients before Feb 15 2026.
We have limited context: News: "Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but not provided in prompt. Possib... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 465 | 1,101 | null | -0.385662 | 0.1024 |
Will Airbus publicly announce that all 6,000 potentially impacted A320 aircraft have successfully completed the flight control software modification by February 28, 2026? | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if Airbus issues an official press release or a spokesperson is quoted in a major news outlet (Reuters, Bloomberg, AP) stating that 100% of the approximately 6,000 A320 aircraft identified as requiring the solar radiation software update have completed the modification. If any aircraft rema... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | 62c66e75-7ccb-4ea5-93b6-2835d4dfb4c7 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Airbus issues major A320 recall after mid-air incident grounds planes, disrupting global travel (published on 2025-11-28 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Airbus ordered immediate repairs to about 6,000 A320-family jets a... | strategy_choice | 0.63 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Estimate probability that Airbus will publicly announce that all 6,000 potentially impacted A320 aircraft have successfully completed the flight control software modification by Feb 28, 2026.
We have context: news articles from late November 2025 reporting emergency recall of up... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,204 | 1,149 | null | -0.994252 | 0.3969 |
Will the Udupi district police announce the arrest of more than five additional individuals in connection with the Neelavara village illegal sand mining case by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Udupi district police or Brahmavar police department publicly confirms the arrest of at least six additional individuals specifically linked to the illegal sand extraction at Neelavara village (the case involving Vijay Kumar and Varadhendra) by January 15, 2026. This count excludes... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 772bff60-a4cb-4992-ab65-b36ae8f216bb | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Udupi district police illegal sand mining Neelavara arrest; Neelavara village illegal sand mining case Udupi police more arrests; Udupi illegal sand mining case January 2026 police announce; Neelavara sand mining case accused arr... | strategy_choice | 0.14 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Udupi district police announce arrest of more than five additional individuals (i.e., at least six) in connection with the Neelavara village illegal sand mining case by Jan 15 2026. Today is Dec 1 2025, so we have ~1.5 months. The context includes: ther... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 473 | 992 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 |
Will the Indian Rupee (INR) close at or weaker than 90.00 against the US Dollar (USD) on any trading day before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the daily closing spot price of the Indian Rupee (INR) is 90.00 or higher (e.g., 90.01, 90.50) against the US Dollar (USD) on any trading day between December 1, 2025 and January 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the official daily exchange rate data provided by the Reserve... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 77717c39-45ce-4212-8593-e10244f6b0c6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Indian Rupee Approaches 90 Against US Dollar Amid Market Pressures (published on 2025-11-25 by indianewsnetwork.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The rupee is under downward pressure, nearing 90 per USD after a record low of 89.49; it f... | strategy_choice | 0.65 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that INR will close at or weaker than 90.00 (i.e., 90 or above) on any trading day between Dec 1 2025 and Jan 31 2026. Use context up to Nov 2025. The rupee has touched 89.49, record low, near 90. Current trend downward, pressure from trade deficit, gold imp... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,515 | 1,074 | null | -1.049822 | 0.4225 |
Will at least one major US news organization (CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, or The New York Times) join a lawsuit or file a formal legal motion against the Trump administration regarding press access or journalist harassment by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if CNN, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, or The New York Times is a named plaintiff or intervenor in a lawsuit filed in a U.S. federal court against Donald Trump or the Executive Office of the President between December 1, 2025, and February 1, 2026, where the core complaint involves the haras... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | abd82869-8e84-4993-89b0-4479f01728f5 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Government Ordered to Pay Food Stamp Benefits During Shutdown (published on 2025-10-31 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: During the federal shutdown, a judge ordered the Trump administration to continue paying SNAP food stamp... | strategy_choice | 0.55 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that at least one major US news org (CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, NYT) joins a lawsuit or files a motion against Trump administration regarding press access or journalist harassment between Dec 1 2025 and Feb 1 2026.
We have context up to Dec 2025 (today). There are... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,475 | 1,290 | null | -0.798508 | 0.3025 |
Will the Karnataka Transport Department officially announce the closure of physical cash counters for online-available services at all Regional Transport Offices (RTOs) by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, by February 1, 2026, the Karnataka Transport Department or the State Transport Minister issues an official order or public announcement confirming that physical cash counters have been closed at all RTOs across the state for the 31 services available online. This refers specifically t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | b951aadd-fd9a-4db0-b9ff-898ac0e5d21e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Karnataka Transport Department closure of cash counters online services RTOs announcement; Karnataka RTO cash counter closure February 1 2026; Karnataka Transport Department online services payment modes cashless e-challan fee pa... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Karnataka Transport Department will officially announce closure of physical cash counters for online-available services at all RTOs by Feb 1 2026.
We have no specific news context given; the input shows placeholder "NEWS:" but no details. So we must ba... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 486 | 766 | null | -0.510826 | 0.16 |
Will the United States and India officially sign a comprehensive or limited bilateral trade agreement before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if an official trade agreement (either a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement or a limited 'mini-deal') is formally signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Indian governments between December 1, 2025 and February 14, 2026. This must be confirmed by an of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | ce1518aa-a177-4a6d-9aa4-3a935a535577 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'Going on very well': Piyush Goyal gives update on India-US trade deal talks; cites 'many sensitive, seri (published on 2025-11-06 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Piyush Goyal said India-US talks on the bila... | strategy_choice | 0.53 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that US & India will officially sign a comprehensive or limited bilateral trade agreement between Dec 1, 2025 and Feb 14, 2026 (close date Feb 15, 2026). Context includes many articles from November 2025, all indicating progress, some optimism to sign before... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,169 | 1,315 | null | -0.755023 | 0.2809 |
Will the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issue a new Airworthiness Directive (AD) specifically related to flight control computer corruption or solar radiation impacts on the Airbus A320 family before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) publishes a new Airworthiness Directive (AD) or a revision to an existing AD in its official AD Safety Publishing Tool (AD Tool) targeting the Airbus A320 family (A318, A319, A320, A321) regarding 'flight control computer software corrupt... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | ce717743-f671-4de1-9b2b-d8c23f97d539 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] A320 Fleet Hit With Emergency Flight-Control Directive (published on 2025-11-28 by airlinegeeks.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Airbus said operators of certain A320-family aircraft must take immediate precautionary action after new a... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: estimate probability that EASA will issue a new AD specifically related to flight control computer corruption or solar radiation impacts on Airbus A320 family before Feb 1, 2026.
We have context: News articles from late Nov 2025 (Nov 28-30) reporting that EASA issued an emergenc... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,300 | 1,430 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will the district administration of Nanded, Maharashtra, impose a formal curfew (Section 163 of BNSS or Section 144 of CrPC) covering any part of Nanded city for at least 24 hours between December 1, 2025, and December 15, 2025? | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal order is issued by the District Magistrate or Police Commissioner of Nanded imposing a curfew or prohibitory orders restricting public assembly (under relevant sections of Indian law) in response to communal or caste-based tensions following the killing of Saksham Tate. Verifi... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2025-12-12T00:00:00 | d0fc5dc5-17f7-4f9a-9169-e2e0c8274c2d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Nanded district administration curfew Section 144 December 2025; Nanded BNSS Section 163 curfew order December 2025; Nanded city curfew order 24 hours December 2025; Nanded district magistrate (DM) prohibitory orders Section 144 ... | strategy_choice | 0.27 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that district administration of Nanded, Maharashtra will impose a formal curfew (Section 163 of BNSS or Section 144 of CrPC) covering any part of Nanded city for at least 24 hours between Dec 1, 2025 and Dec 15, 2025. Today is Dec 1, 2025. The context includ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 494 | 1,072 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 |
Will the Rajasthan state government announce a state-wide mandatory re-verification or audit of all disability pension recipients (Divyang Pension) before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Government of Rajasthan, through the Department of Social Justice and Empowerment or a cabinet-level announcement, officially mandates a state-wide (covering all districts) physical or documentary re-verification process for all current disability pension beneficiaries. This must b... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2026-01-11T00:00:00 | dff7cf17-f883-4fc3-b415-9a6fb4e2380a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rajasthan mandatory re-verification disability pension Divyang Pension audit; Rajasthan disability pension re-verification deadline February 2026 Divyang; Rajasthan Social Justice and Empowerment Department Divyang Pension verifi... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Rajasthan state govt announces mandatory re-verification/audit of all disability pension recipients before 15 Feb 2026. Today is 1 Dec 2025, so roughly 2.5 months out. Need to consider context. However given no specific news provided (the context says "... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 465 | 937 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 |
Will the Goa State Election Commission or the Goa Home Department officially announce the transfer or suspension of the Canacona Police Inspector before January 19, 2026? | 2026-01-19T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 1, 2025, and January 18, 2026, a government official or agency (such as the State Election Commission or Goa Police) publicly announces that the Police Inspector (PI) currently stationed at Canacona has been transferred or suspended following the internal review of th... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-19T00:00:00 | e12f8dc4-e99d-4475-a4c7-9007b92af838 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Goa State Election Commission transfer suspension Canacona Police Inspector; Goa Home Department order suspension Canacona Police Inspector; Canacona Police Inspector transfer suspension Goa Home Department official; Goa Home Dep... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that before Jan 19 2026 (i.e., within ~1.5 months from Dec 1 2025) that the Goa State Election Commission or Goa Home Department will officially announce the transfer or suspension of the Canacona Police Inspector concerning Poinguinim meeting incident.
We ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 480 | 771 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 |
Will the Indian Rupee (INR) close at or weaker than 90.00 against the US Dollar (USD) on any trading day before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the daily closing spot price of the Indian Rupee (INR) is 90.00 or higher (e.g., 90.01, 90.50) against the US Dollar (USD) on any trading day between December 1, 2025 and January 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the official daily exchange rate data provided by the Reserve... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | f044e783-4257-4ff6-bbd0-33630defd59d | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Indian Rupee hits record low against US Dollar amid US-India trade deal concerns (published on 2025-11-12 by fxstreet.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: USD/INR rose to an all-time high near 90.80 as the rupee came under selling pressure... | strategy_choice | 0.58 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that INR closes at or weaker (i.e., 90.00 or above) at any trading day between Dec 1 2025 and Jan 31 2026.
Let's examine context: Several articles show that as of mid to late November 2025, the rupee had reached about 89.49, with some days near 90.80 record... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,607 | 1,043 | null | -0.544727 | 0.1764 |
Will at least one major US news organization (CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, or The New York Times) join a lawsuit or file a formal legal motion against the Trump administration regarding press access or journalist harassment by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if CNN, ABC News, NBC News, CBS News, or The New York Times is a named plaintiff or intervenor in a lawsuit filed in a U.S. federal court against Donald Trump or the Executive Office of the President between December 1, 2025, and February 1, 2026, where the core complaint involves the haras... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-01T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | f703daf7-e44f-4b42-9fd9-a644425cbec3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] White House restricts media access in key area of the West Wing (published on 2025-10-31 by washingtonpost.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The White House said Friday that reporters can no longer access \"Upper Press,\" a West Wing ar... | strategy_choice | 0.42 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that at least one major US news org (CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, NYT) joins a lawsuit or files formal legal motion against Trump administration regarding press access or journalist harassment by Feb 1 2026.
Current context: as of Dec 1 2025, there are ongoing tensi... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,355 | 1,301 | null | -0.867501 | 0.3364 |
Will the United Nations General Assembly or the UN Security Council officially recognize Edmundo González as the President of Venezuela by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) passes a resolution or the UN Security Council (UNSC) issues a formal statement/resolution recognizing Edmundo González as the legitimate President of Venezuela or accepting his appointed representatives' credentials as the official delegatio... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 0807bf2c-0926-456a-b6c7-e1703c572f4c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] A War in Venezuela Would Not Solve Latin America's Drug and Dictator Problems (published on 2025-11-14 by stimson.org) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: The article says the Trump administration is launching a renewed \"maximum pressure\" ca... | strategy_choice | 0.09 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that UNGA or UNSC will officially recognize Edmundo González as President of Venezuela by March 1, 2026. Need to use context.
We have recent news: article about Edmundo González—he received about 70% of vote in election that Maduro refused to recognize; he ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,359 | 1,044 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 |
Will the Indian Cabinet approve a formal amendment to the Terms of Reference (ToR) for the 8th Central Pay Commission before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Union Cabinet of India officially approves an amendment or expansion to the Terms of Reference (ToR) for the 8th Central Pay Commission that were originally notified in November 2025. This change must be confirmed by an official government notification or a Press Information Bureau... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2c394207-08cd-424c-ab6f-b593633cfa69 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 8th Pay Commission delayed further? NCJCM urges PM Modi to amend ToR - What could change for Central Government employees? EXPLAINED (published on 2025-11-23 by etnownews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: NC JCM staff side has written t... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Indian Union Cabinet will approve formal amendment to the Terms of Reference (ToR) for 8th Central Pay Commission before March 1, 2026.
We have context: ToR approved in November 2025 (Cabinet approved). Many stakeholder/unions are requesting amendments... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,516 | 1,234 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 |
Will the Government of India officially announce a merger of the existing Dearness Allowance (DA) with the basic pay for central government employees on or before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Ministry of Finance, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), or a primary government spokesperson officially announces that the current Dearness Allowance (DA) or Dearness Relief (DR) will be merged into the basic pay/basic pension of central government employees. This an... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2df2ae9d-89bb-4232-9f0e-4f593842eb73 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 8th Pay Commission and DA Merger with Basic Pay: Parliament to seek answers on 1st December, 2025 (published on 2025-11-26 by staffnews.in) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: On December 1, 2025, the Lok Sabha will seek a written response fro... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Government of India will officially announce merger of Dearness Allowance with basic pay for central government employees by March 1, 2026.
We have context up to Dec 2025. Several news articles clarify that as of Dec 1, 2025, the government (Finance Mi... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,360 | 1,360 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 |
Will Sean Barbabella be replaced as the Physician to the President before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the White House officially announces a new 'Physician to the President' or if Sean Barbabella's departure/resignation from that specific role is officially confirmed by the White House or reported by major outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, NYT) between December 2, 2025, and March 1, 2026. O... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 44862f89-9f30-4239-8db4-1214d0d07c99 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] White House memo says Trump had 'perfectly normal' preventive MRI (published on 2025-12-01 by thehill.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: A new White House memo says President Trump underwent preventive cardiovascular and abdominal imagin... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that Sean Barbabella will be replaced as Physician to the President before March 1, 2026. Currently it's Dec 2, 2025. He is currently serving under President Donald Trump, who is 79. Assume his health may be an issue but regular turnover for physician to president? Hist... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,777 | 790 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 |
Will the Rajya Sabha hold a formal short-duration discussion or a debate on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the official proceedings of the Rajya Sabha (available on the Rajya Sabha website or reported by major outlets like PTI or The Hindu) confirm that a formal discussion or debate specifically titled or focused on the 'Special Intensive Revision' (SIR) of electoral rolls was conducted in th... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | 4c4e688f-6ccd-48f5-9389-7f4ee45648f6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Centre nod for poll reforms debate; Parliament standoff may end today (published on 2025-12-01 by thefederal.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Parliament's Winter Session logjam is expected to ease on Wednesday (Dec 3) after the Centre ... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Rajya Sabha will hold a formal short-duration discussion or debate on SIR before Feb 1 2026. We have context up to Dec 1-19 2025 (Winter Session). There are multiple articles indicating opposition push, motions, etc. There's a motion by AAP MP Sanjay Si... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,273 | 1,306 | null | -1.203973 | 0.49 |
Will the Election Commission of India (ECI) formally announce a suspension or cancellation of the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Election Commission of India (ECI) issues an official notification or press release announcing the suspension, halting, or cancellation of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise originally scheduled/underway in late 2025. Temporary delays of less than 48 hours for administrati... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 71790e18-7913-4b4e-83c2-cbbcac5b6cfe | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 8 Bengal Officers Get Notice For Distributing Voter Revision Forms On Tea Stalls (published on 2025-11-09 by ndtv.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: The Election Commission of India (ECI) has issued show-cause notices to eight Booth Leve... | strategy_choice | 0.36 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that ECI formally announces suspension or cancellation of the ongoing SIR before Jan 15, 2026.
Context: As of Dec 2 2025, SIR is ongoing in multiple states (West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Bihar, etc). There are political objections, legal challenges, Supr... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,262 | 1,628 | null | -0.446287 | 0.1296 |
Will Nicolás Maduro be physically located outside of Venezuela and in the custody of a foreign government or an international tribunal on January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, on January 15, 2026, Nicolás Maduro is confirmed to be physically held in a detention facility, court, or government-controlled site in any country other than Venezuela or under the authority of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Confirmation must come from official government s... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-03T00:00:00 | 89037ea2-1331-4190-bff2-949903177c1e | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US will label supposed Venezuelan drug cartel 'headed by Maduro' as terrorist organization (published on 2025-11-17 by theguardian.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: The US plans to designate the alleged Venezuelan Cartel de los Soles—\"... | strategy_choice | 0.07 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Nicolás Maduro will be physically located outside Venezuela and in custody of foreign government or international tribunal on Jan 15 2026.
We have context: recent news indicates escalating US pressure, potential military action, labeling cartel, threat... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,505 | 895 | null | -2.65926 | 0.8649 |
Will Mercor publicly announce the acquisition of another company on or before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Mercor, via an official press release, its verified website (mercor.com), or a report in a major business news outlet (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times), confirms it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire at least a majority stake in or the asset... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-06T00:00:00 | b035166e-4242-4ae2-8aad-ef350b2ca506 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Three AI Prodigies Start from Scratch, Break Global Record as Youngest Billionaires (published on 2025-11-03 by eu.36kr.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: San Francisco AI recruitment startup Mercor, founded in 2023 by 22-year-old CEO Br... | strategy_choice | 0.08 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Mercur will publicly announce an acquisition of another company on or before March 1, 2026.
We have context: news about Mercor up to Nov 2025. No mention of acquisitions. The company has huge valuation $10B, $350M financing series C, but also some inte... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,558 | 1,006 | null | -2.525729 | 0.8464 |
Will at least 15 members of the U.S. House of Representatives co-sponsor a new bill or resolution by February 1, 2026, specifically calling for independent physical and mental health evaluations for the President? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 2, 2025, and February 1, 2026, a bill or resolution is introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives that mandates or formally requests independent (non-military/non-White House staff) medical evaluations for the President, and that legislation gains at least 15 co-... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | dbf65ba2-af59-41f9-a095-0d6a9ee81990 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] What They Are Saying: President Biden's Inner Circle Covered Up His Decline, Took Unauthorized Executive Actions (published on 2025-11-03 by oversight.house.gov) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: The article summarizes a Nov 3, 2025 House Ov... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that by Feb 1 2026, at least 15 members of US House co-sponsor a new bill or resolution calling for independent physical/mental health evaluations of the President.
Context: we have news about oversight allegations (article 1) about Biden's health cover-up.... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,502 | 1,139 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 |
Will the Telangana Legislative Assembly pass a resolution formally condemning Revanth Reddy's remarks regarding Hindu deities before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Telangana Legislative Assembly officially votes on and passes a resolution that explicitly condemns or censures Chief Minister Revanth Reddy for his comments about Hindu gods and marriage analogy described in the seed text. The resolution must be recorded in the official Assembly pro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 0938d86b-0233-4e80-a923-5e3b2087640b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'One God For Drinkers...': Revanth Reddy's Remark Draws BJP's 'Inherent Hinduphobic DNA' Jibe (published on 2025-12-02 by news18.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy sparked controversy after remarks ... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Telangana Legislative Assembly will pass a resolution formally condemning Revanth Reddy's remarks regarding Hindu deities before March 1, 2026. The context: Reports of remarks made Dec 2025 controversy with BJP. No mention of a resolution yet. We need c... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,349 | 1,131 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 |
Will an First Information Report (FIR) be registered against Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy by the Telangana State Police for 'hurting religious sentiments' or 'promoting enmity between groups' (Sections 295A or 153A of the IPC/BNS) before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Telangana State Police or a competent court in Telangana officially registers an FIR against Revanth Reddy specifically citing Section 295A (hurting religious feelings or insulting religion/religious beliefs) or Section 153A (promoting enmity between different groups on grounds of re... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2ce0be42-e672-4ee0-8a0e-1516db396ada | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Revanth Reddy FIR hurting religious sentiments 295A; Telangana police FIR promoting enmity between groups 153A Revanth Reddy; Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy religious sentiments controversy BNS 295A 153A; Telangana State ... | strategy_choice | 0.05 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that an FIR will be registered against Telangana Chief Minister Revanth Reddy by Telangana State Police for sections 295A or 153A before Jan 15 2026. Current date Dec 3 2025, close date Jan 15 2026. So roughly a 1.5 month window (approx 43 days). We need to ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 553 | 1,033 | null | -0.051293 | 0.0025 |
Will a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine be signed by representatives of both nations before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if a written ceasefire agreement intended to halt hostilities in the ongoing conflict is signed by authorized representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian governments on or before February 28, 2026. Informal 'understandings' or unilateral declarations of a pause in fighting do not qualif... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 30b3365e-b0b3-4a2b-89d5-43c8ea93aade | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump pushes Ukraine, Russia on peace deal, but key issues are unresolved (published on 2025-11-25 by washingtonpost.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump said talks with Ukraine and Russia were making progress and that only \"a few r... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that a formal ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine will be signed by representatives of both nations before March 1, 2026 (i.e., on or before Feb 28, 2026). Today is Dec 3, 2025. So there is about 3 months left.
We have context: many articles about ongoing pe... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,045 | 1,014 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 |
Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury or U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announce an official extension of the December 15, 2025, deadline for companies to file tariff refund preservation claims? | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before December 15, 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), or a federal court officially moves or extends the deadline for businesses to file administrative or legal claims to preserve their rights to tariff refunds beyond the origin... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-15T00:00:00 | 34f46409-019a-44c5-abd6-93347f4e77f6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Costco sues Trump admin seeking tariff refunds before Supreme Court rules if they're illegal (published on 2025-12-01 by cnbc.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Costco sued the Trump administration in the U.S. Court of International Trad... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Treasury or CBP announce an official extension of Dec 15, 2025 deadline for filing tariff refund preservation claims, by Dec 15, 2025.
Context: Several news articles Dec 1-2 2025 about Costco suing, CBP denied extension request, deadline approaching. S... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,222 | 725 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will at least one person be officially arrested and taken into custody by the Bihar Police in relation to the harassment and threats against Jain Monk Vishalyasagar Ji Maharaj before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Bihar Police or the Muzaffarpur District Police officially announce the arrest of one or more suspects specifically connected to the incident involving the threat to Jain Monk Vishalyasagar Ji Maharaj that occurred near Gopinathpur Dokra. Arrests must be for criminal offenses related... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 47418256-f910-40ea-a141-73b84c7364a4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Bihar Police arrested harassment threats Jain Monk Vishalyasagar Ji Maharaj; Vishalyasagar Ji Maharaj threats harassment FIR Bihar Police; Bihar Police action in Jain monk harassment case latest update; harassment threats Jain mo... | strategy_choice | 0.45 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that at least one person will be officially arrested and taken into custody by Bihar Police in relation to harassment and threats against Jain Monk Vishalyasagar Ji Maharaj before Jan 15 2026. Today's date Dec 3 2025; so horizon about 1.5 months. Need to eva... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 497 | 766 | null | -0.597837 | 0.2025 |
Will the Indonesian government officially declare the 2025 Sumatra floods a 'national disaster' (bencana nasional) on or before January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal presidential decree or an official government announcement (via the National Disaster Management Authority - BNPB, or the Cabinet Secretariat of the Republic of Indonesia) designates the late 2025 Sumatra floods as a 'national disaster' by 11:59 PM Local Time on January 31, 20... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 49990a1d-de01-45c1-86b5-45c0fb49fc2b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pemerintah Tidak Tetapkan Banjir Sumatera sebagai Bencana Nasional Ini Penjelasannya (published on 2025-12-01 by netralnews.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: Pemerintah menegaskan banjir dan longsor di sejumlah provinsi Sumatera belum d... | strategy_choice | 0.28 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Indonesian government will officially declare the 2025 Sumatra floods a "national disaster" on or before Jan 31 2026.
We have current status, as of Dec 3 2025 (today). Multiple news articles (all from early Dec 2025) indicate that as of Dec 1-2, the go... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,761 | 1,189 | null | -0.328504 | 0.0784 |
Will the United States and Russia officially announce the formation of a joint diplomatic 'working group' or 'bilateral commission' dedicated to Ukraine peace negotiations before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before March 1, 2026, the U.S. Department of State or the Kremlin issues an official statement announcing the establishment of a formal, recurring diplomatic working group or commission specifically tasked with negotiating the end of the conflict in Ukraine. Informal visits by e... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 4a5388ae-2abe-4cb4-91a6-1d5f79572043 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Three Lessons From Trump's Latest Plan for Ukraine (published on 2025-11-25 by washingtonmonthly.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Trump's leaked Ukraine peace proposal was heavily criticized because it would give Russia most of what it... | strategy_choice | 0.27 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that US and Russia will officially announce formation of a joint diplomatic working group or bilateral commission dedicated to Ukraine peace negotiations before March 1, 2026.
We have context up to November 2025. The articles describe Trump's peace plan wit... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,168 | 1,107 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 |
Will the Kozhikode Rural District Police announce the establishment of a new permanent police outpost or permanent CCTV surveillance unit at the Kuttiyadi mountain pass by December 23, 2025? | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 3, 2025, and December 23, 2025, the Kozhikode Rural District Police or the Kerala Home Department officially announces the commissioning or installation of a permanent police outpost or a permanent 24/7 CCTV surveillance facility specifically for the maintenance of la... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-23T00:00:00 | 4fcbe345-b303-40be-82ce-e5d72d87bac6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Kozhikode Rural District Police Kuttiyadi mountain pass outpost; Kuttiyadi mountain pass permanent CCTV surveillance unit Kozhikode Rural Police; Kozhikode Rural Police Kuttiyadi pass announcement; Kozhikode district police CCTV ... | strategy_choice | 0.11 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Kozhikode Rural District Police will announce establishment of a new permanent police outpost or permanent CCTV surveillance unit at Kuttiyadi mountain pass by dec 23, 2025. Today is Dec 3, 2025. Need forecast about next 20 days.
We have no context new... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 490 | 993 | null | -0.116534 | 0.0121 |
Will the European Council formally reach a unanimous agreement on the 'reparations loan' mechanism to use frozen Russian assets before January 1, 2026? | 2026-01-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the European Council, during its December 2025 summit or subsequent meetings before Jan 1, 2026, officially announces a unanimous agreement among all member states (including Belgium) to adopt the reparations loan mechanism using immobilized Russian state assets as collateral. Resoluti... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-19T00:00:00 | 544da024-faab-4d3b-8a6d-54a906211ff7 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Belgium is right about the reparation loan (published on 2025-11-26 by euractiv.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Europe must quickly adopt its reparations-loan plan to keep Ukraine afloat, but the European Council still lacks agreement... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that European Council will formally reach a unanimous agreement on the reparations loan mechanism using frozen Russian assets before Jan 1 2026. Current date: Dec 3 2025. The timeframe left is about a month (Dec 3-31). There's a European Council summit sched... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,208 | 1,328 | null | -0.510826 | 0.16 |
Will the Indonesian central government announce an additional emergency funding allocation specifically for the Sumatra flood relief exceeding 5 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Indonesian Ministry of Finance or the President's office publicly announces a specific disbursement or commitment of additional emergency funds totaling more than 5 trillion IDR specifically for the December 2025 Sumatra flood recovery and relief efforts before the close date. This... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | 578de287-0a6b-4cf7-bdeb-1213dd6833c1 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Sumatra Floods: Civil Groups, Lawmakers Urge National Disaster Status (published on 2025-12-02 by en.tempo.co) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Indonesia has not declared the late-November Sumatra flash floods and landslides (Aceh, West Sum... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Indonesian central government will announce additional emergency funding exceeding 5 trillion IDR (roughly $330 million) for the Sumatra flood relief by Feb 1, 2026.
Context: As of early Dec 2025, the floods have caused massive damage, death toll >600. G... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,125 | 1,047 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 |
Will at least one EU member state formally file a legal challenge against the EU's Russian gas phase-out regulation with the European Court of Justice before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question refers to the deal reached on December 3, 2025, to phase out Russian gas by 2027. Foreign ministers from Hungary and Slovakia specifically vowed to contest the law. The question resolves to 'Yes' if the European Court of Justice (ECJ) publicly logs a formal application for annulment or a legal challenge ag... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-02T00:00:00 | 8eb5fe40-bfe6-42ff-b698-3beb8d162581 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Hungary to mount court challenge to EU's planned phase-out of Russian energy, Orbán says (published on 2025-11-14 by euronews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Hungary will challenge the EU's plan to end Russian energy imports and will ... | strategy_choice | 0.75 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that at least one EU member state files a legal challenge against the EU's Russian gas phase-out regulation with the ECJ before March 1 2026. Context: Deal reached Dec 3 2025 to phase out Russian gas by 2027. Foreign ministers from Hungary and Slovakia vowed... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,508 | 1,209 | null | -0.287682 | 0.0625 |
Will the Trump administration announce a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at over $500 million before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question revolves around whether the current policy of 'pressuring Ukraine' shifts to 'pressuring Putin' via military support following the stalled Moscow talks. It resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense or the White House officially announces a new commitment of weapons, ammunition, or equipment for U... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | a16d8f2e-3dc9-40c0-8319-cc3a320ee527 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Nordic and Baltic countries team up to fund US arms for Ukraine (published on 2025-11-13 by defensenews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Nordic and Baltic countries agreed to fund a $500 million U.S. weapons and munitions support packa... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Trump administration (current administration? In context, "Trump administration" means Donald Trump is president again, apparently. It's December 2025 now. So Trump is in his second non-consecutive term? The question: "Will the Trump administration announ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,489 | 1,762 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 |
Will the Bangladesh Election Commission officially register Tarique Rahman as a voter in Bangladesh by February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Bangladesh Election Commission (EC) formally adds Tarique Rahman to the national voter list or publicly announces his successful registration as a voter between December 3, 2025, and February 15, 2026. This follows the December 1, 2015, statement by the EC Senior Secretary regardin... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | a710ab8b-c3a8-484c-b26b-a508a9dbfa09 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Tarique not on voter roll (published on 2025-12-01 by thedailystar.net) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman is not registered as a voter, an Election Commission (EC) senior official said. EC Senior Secretary ... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Bangladesh Election Commission will officially register Tarique Rahman as a voter by Feb 15 2026. Use context.
We have multiple articles. Summaries: as of Dec 1 2025, he is not registered. Senior Secretary said only those registered by Oct 31 can vote.... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,452 | 1,257 | null | -1.714798 | 0.6724 |
Will Ukraine and Russia sign a formal bilateral ceasefire agreement or a comprehensive peace treaty to end the war before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal ceasefire agreement or peace treaty is officially signed by representatives of both the Ukrainian and Russian governments on or before March 1, 2026. This must be confirmed by official government statements from both nations or reported by major international news agencies (e.... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | b0fd496b-60e7-418e-a51c-6569b860e618 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Leaked Trump Peace Plan Would Force Ukraine to Cede Territory, Limit Its Army, and Abandon NATO Bid, Says Axios (published on 2025-11-21 by united24media.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Axios reports a leaked 28-point Trump adviser dr... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Ukraine and Russia will sign a formal bilateral ceasefire agreement or comprehensive peace treaty before March 1, 2026.
We have context: Several news articles (Nov 2025) about US/Trump peace plan, ongoing negotiations. No mention of a signed agreement ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,258 | 1,086 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 |
Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass a resolution or bill before March 1, 2026, that explicitly restricts the use of funds for military strikes against suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean Sea or Pacific Ocean? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. House of Representatives passes a standalone bill, an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), or a supplemental appropriations bill that includes language prohibiting or limiting the expenditure of funds for lethal military strikes against suspected drug bo... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | b417a8d7-69cf-4ece-88bd-720d8e4b060c | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Congress splits on steps to curb Trump's war powers (published on 2025-11-07 by njspotlightnews.org) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Congress is divided over limiting President Donald Trump's war powers. The House voted 261-167 in Septembe... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that US House will pass a resolution or bill before March 1, 2026 restricting Use of funds for military strikes on drug traffick vessels in Caribbean Sea or Pacific.
We have context: In 2025, there has been a controversy: President Trump ordering lethal str... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,167 | 1,299 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 |
Will a face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin be held before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in person at any location globally between December 3, 2025, and February 28, 2026. The meeting must be confirmed by official government statements from either the White House or the Kremlin, or reported by major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | bd7035ae-0f39-4b5d-b153-15712c0d4911 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] After US-Ukraine meeting in Florida, focus shifts to Putin (published on 2025-12-01 by abcnews.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Steve Witkoff is traveling to Moscow to brief Russian President Vladimir Putin on outcomes from Sunday's U.... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Trump and Putin meet face-to-face before March 1, 2026 (i.e., within next 3 months approx). Today 2025-12-03. Context: Several news articles. There's talk of a US special envoy Steve Witkoff traveling to Moscow to brief Putin, meeting on Tuesday (presumab... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,172 | 1,307 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 |
Will Tarique Rahman, the acting chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), return to Bangladesh by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Tarique Rahman physically arrives in Bangladesh at any point between December 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, as confirmed by official government statements or major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, or Dhaka Tribune). Arrival is defined as clearing immigra... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-25T00:00:00 | d362a396-172d-4707-a636-250804211010 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Tarique Rahman likely to return home soon if Khaleda Zia's condition remains unchanged (published on 2025-12-02 by en.prothomalo.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: BNP sources say Tarique Rahman will likely return from the UK soon if Kha... | strategy_choice | 0.68 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: estimate probability that Tarique Rahman returns to Bangladesh by Jan 31 2026, given context and today's date Dec 3 2025. We have numerous news articles. Need to reason and produce probability.
We need to consider constraints: physical arrival, confirmed by official statements o... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,237 | 805 | null | -0.385662 | 0.1024 |
Will the Supreme Court of the United States issue a ruling by March 1, 2026, that declares the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for the 2025 baseline import tariffs to be unlawful? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Supreme Court of the United States issues an official opinion or judgment on or before March 1, 2026, explicitly stating that the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the baseline 10% (or higher) tariffs was beyond the President... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | d8fc3ee3-b4f0-4720-b1ac-9c6de6e76970 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Oral Argument Summary: Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump (Tariffs) (published on 2025-11-10 by lawfaremedia.org) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: The Supreme Court heard oral argument in consolidated cases, Trump v. V.O.S. Selections and Le... | strategy_choice | 0.63 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The question: Will the Supreme Court issue a ruling by March 1, 2026 that declares the use of IEEPA for the 2025 baseline import tariffs to be unlawful?
We have context: Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Nov 5, 2025. Cases: Trump v. V.O.S. Selections; Learning Resources v. Trump. Lowe... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,252 | 1,364 | null | -0.462035 | 0.1369 |
Will the Government of Bihar issue a formal state-wide advisory or executive order specifically regarding the provision of security for 'vihar' (travelling) Jain monks by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the Home Department of Bihar or the Chief Minister's Office issues a formal written directive, advisory, or official notification to all District Magistrates/SPs to provide safety protocols or police escorts specifically for Jain monks during their travels (vihar) in the state. This must... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | d96cce47-ef02-40d3-b2f3-f2d48aed223b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Bihar government advisory security Jain monks travelling; Bihar police order security Jain monks vihar; site:bihar.gov.in Jain monks security advisory; Bihar cabinet executive order law and order security religious processions Ja... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Bihar government will issue a formal state-wide advisory/executive order specifically regarding security for 'vihar' Jain monks by Feb 1 2026. Context: we have "Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but it's blank. So we have no specific info. ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 500 | 1,255 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 |
Will the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) issue a formal press release or notice specifically announcing the opening of a case regarding the complaint filed by the family of Alejandro Carranza against the U.S. government before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) publishes an official press release or updates its case database indicating it has formally opened a case or granted precautionary measures concerning the death of Alejandro Carranza in the September 15 strike. The announcement must... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | ebc501c0-e5ba-42cb-8c9d-09720de27294 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US airstrike in Caribbean draws complaint before human rights watchdog (published on 2025-12-02 by politico.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: A Colombian man's family filed a complaint with the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights,... | strategy_choice | 0.28 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that IACHR will issue a formal press release or notice specifically announcing opening of a case regarding complaint filed by family of Alejandro Carranza against US before March 1, 2026.
We have context: news articles on Dec 2 2025 reporting that family fi... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 993 | 893 | null | -0.328504 | 0.0784 |
Will Friedrich Merz remain as the Chancellor of Germany through March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Friedrich Merz holds the office of Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany on March 1, 2026. If he resigns, is removed via a vote of no confidence, or otherwise leaves office before this date, the question resolves to 'No'. His status must be verifiable via the official website o... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-03T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | ff611394-5af4-4fd8-945d-0515288b8bca | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Polish-German consultations: Germany and Poland are indispensable partners (published on 2025-12-01 by ieu-monitoring.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: At the 17th German-Polish government consultations, Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Po... | strategy_choice | 0.65 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Friedrich Merz remains Chancellor through March 1 2026, given today Dec 3 2025. He took office in May 2025. He faces coalition instability, narrow majority (12 seats), internal rebellion over pension reform. There's risk of collapse, early election, vot... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,095 | 965 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 |
Will the Government of Kerala issue a formal notification for the permanent appointment of a Vice Chancellor for the Kerala University of Digital Sciences, Innovation and Technology by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Kerala State Government (Higher Education Department) publishes a formal notification or government order (GO) appointing a regular, permanent Vice Chancellor for the Kerala University of Digital Sciences, Innovation and Technology on or before March 1, 2026. If the university rema... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | 09c9debc-7653-42f8-b8fb-a130ef37de12 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] VC appointment row: SC asks Kerala Guv to decide on Dhulia panel report by Dec 5 (published on 2025-11-28 by onmanorama.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Supreme Court criticised Kerala Governor Rajendra Arlekar for not deciding on ... | strategy_choice | 0.62 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Kerala government issues formal notification for permanent appointment of Vice Chancellor for Kerala University of Digital Sciences, Innovation and Technology (KUDSIT) by March 1, 2026.
We have context: Supreme Court orders (Nov 2025) pressing Governor t... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,208 | 1,351 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 |
Will the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) announce a formal inquiry or investigation into PayPal or Venmo's service reliability before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 4, 2025, and March 1, 2026, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) issues a public press release, official statement, or civil investigative demand (CID) specifically citing Venmo or PayPal's service outages or operational reliability as a subject of investig... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 26355c37-70f7-4aa3-a47e-7e538dd8c0c8 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Digital wallet use outpaces regulators (published on 2025-12-03 by paymentsdive.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Confinity launched \"PayPal.com\" in 1999 as an email money \"killer app,\" later evolving into today's digital wallet era... | strategy_choice | 0.14 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that CFPB will announce a formal inquiry or investigation into PayPal or Venmo’s service reliability before March 1, 2026 (i.e., within about 3 months from Dec 4, 2025). Context: recent articles claim CFPB proposed rule expanding oversight of large wallet pr... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 647 | 915 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 |
Will Alex Chriss remain the Chief Executive Officer of PayPal Holdings, Inc. through January 31, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if Alex Chriss is still the active CEO of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (Venmo's parent company) as of 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2026. A resolution of 'No' occurs if PayPal publicly announces his resignation, termination, or retirement, or names an interim/acting CEO to replace him before this d... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2ce23681-5770-45c9-99ab-5c1c8fbe848a | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] PayPal Stock Price Forecast – PYPL Rises to $68 After Q3 Beat, BNPL Power 31% EPS Growth (published on 2025-11-05 by tradingnews.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) shares rose to $68.08 (+3%) after a strong Q3 2025: ... | strategy_choice | 0.86 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Alex Chriss remains CEO through Jan 31 2026. Today Dec 4 2025. Context: recent news articles show no indication of departure. He emphasizes execution discipline for 2026–2027. No mention of retirement or stepping down. Assume CEOs at large firms typical... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,354 | 638 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 |
Will the Supreme Court of India issue a final judgment or an interim order that officially confirms the appointment of Dr. Ciza Thomas as the Vice Chancellor of A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technological University by February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before February 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of India issues a ruling, judgment, or order that explicitly directs, upholds, or confirms the appointment of Dr. Ciza Thomas as the Vice Chancellor of A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technological University. If the court rejects her appointment, ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | 313a768e-bf79-4aed-95c8-0fb1431ce29f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Supreme Court of India Dr. Ciza Thomas Vice Chancellor A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technological University interim order; Supreme Court of India appointment of Vice Chancellor A.P.J. Abdul Kalam Technological University Ciza Thomas case ... | strategy_choice | 0.27 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that SC India issues final judgment or interim order confirming appointment of Dr. Ciza Thomas as VC of APJ Abdul Kalam Technological University (KTU) by Feb 15, 2026.
We need to use reasoning based on context. However, context shows no news. It just says "... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 530 | 923 | null | -1.309333 | 0.5329 |
Will the Tamil Nadu state government officially announce a return to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) for all state government employees by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before March 1, 2026, the Government of Tamil Nadu issues an official Government Order (GO) or an official public statement from the Chief Minister's office declaring the full reinstatement of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) to replace the current contributory pension scheme for it... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-03T00:00:00 | 32c22761-fb63-4869-b476-f1f21fd9ce40 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Will 8th Central Pay Commission make an impact on Union Budget 2026-27? (published on 2025-11-25 by moneycontrol.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: With the 8th Central Pay Commission (ToR notified Nov 3, 2025), government employees and ... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Tamil Nadu state government will officially announce a return to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) for all state government employees by March 1, 2026.
We have contextual news about national issues (8th Pay Commission, central government employees, etc.) an... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,389 | 1,104 | null | -0.287682 | 0.0625 |
Will the Supreme Court of India issue a new judgment or order in the Malik Mazhar Sultan vs. Uttar Pradesh Public Service Commission case specifically setting a new mandatory deadline for filling judicial vacancies before March 15, 2026? | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 4, 2025, and March 15, 2026, the Supreme Court of India issues a formal order or judgment in the 'Malik Mazhar Sultan & Anr. v. U.P. Public Service Commission & Ors.' (Civil Appeal No. 1867/2006) matter that explicitly sets or revises a compliance deadline for State ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-03-15T00:00:00 | 8140fa06-45dc-4b60-8551-55857f78a3b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "\"Malik Mazhar Sultan\" Uttar Pradesh Public Service Commission Supreme Court judgment; \"Malik Mazhar Sultan\" deadline March 15 2026; Supreme Court of India judicial vacancies filling deadline order 2025 2026; \"UPPSC\" judicia... | strategy_choice | 0.09 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability that SC India will issue new judgment/order in Malik Mazhar Sultan vs. U.P. Public Service Commission case setting a new mandatory deadline for filling judicial vacancies before March 15, 2026. As of today Dec 4 2025, the context: no recent news given. Need to ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 544 | 1,099 | null | -0.094311 | 0.0081 |
Will the Union Cabinet of India formally approve a bill to establish an 'All India Judicial Service' (AIJS) before March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Union Cabinet of India, chaired by the Prime Minister, officially announces the approval of a bill or a constitutional amendment proposal to create the All India Judicial Service (AIJS) at any time before March 1, 2026. This must be verified by an official Press Information Bureau... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 928d0c08-df21-410f-a75c-0ad5275d2bdc | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Presidential Reference: Legislative space of states just got shrunk (published on 2025-11-23 by newindianexpress.com) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: A unanimous Supreme Court Constitution Bench led by CJI B R Gavai, answering 14 President... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Union Cabinet of India will formally approve a bill to establish an "All India Judicial Service" (AIJS) before March 1, 2026, i.e., within next about 3 months (today Dec 4, 2025). So timeline ~ 3 months.
We have context focusing on recent Supreme Court... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,444 | 1,134 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 |
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