Karmane/mlb-starting-pitcher-strikeout-prop-trends-sample

MLB Starting Pitcher Strikeout Prop Dataset for Historical K Research

Question this dataset helps answer: Which MLB starting pitchers historically clear common strikeout-prop thresholds, and what pregame workload, rest, pitch-count, and opponent strikeout context existed before first pitch?

This dataset helps sports-betting researchers, fantasy baseball analysts, and dashboard builders compare, screen, and investigate MLB starting-pitcher strikeout history using rolling workload, pitch-count, rest, and opponent-team strikeout signals.

Use the public sample to check:

• Which starters, teams, venues, and seasons are represented in the preview
• Which columns are usable as pre-event workload or opponent-K features versus post-event outcomes
• Which rows already support 5+, 6+, 7+, and 8+ strikeout-threshold research

Preview vs full dataset:

• Preview: 840 rows and 110 columns
• Full: 16808 rows and 110 columns

Full dataset access: https://thearticulated.gumroad.com/l/mlb-starting-pitcher-strikeout-prop-trends

The full dataset includes 16808 rows across MLB starting-pitcher game observations, making it large enough for dashboard analysis, historical filtering, strikeout-prop research, and exploratory modeling workflows.

Responsible use note

This dataset is for research, analysis, dashboard building, educational use, and exploratory modeling. It does not provide betting advice, picks, guarantees, or predictions of future outcomes.

Modeling notes

• Each row represents one actual starting pitcher in one completed MLB regular-season game.
• Pre-event features include rolling strikeout form, pitch counts, rest timing, quality-start history, team offense context, and opponent-team strikeout environment.
• Outcomes include actual strikeouts, innings pitched, walks, hits allowed, earned runs, and threshold-hit flags for common strikeout-prop ladders.
• The coverage window runs from 2023-03-30 through 2026-06-18.
• The preview is meant to prove schema, coverage, row meaning, and pre-event versus post-event separation rather than replace the full dataset.

This is a free preview. Load it instantly, inspect the schema, and validate quality before purchasing the full dataset.

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What This Preview Proves

• Sample rows: 840 (full dataset: 16,808 rows)
• Columns: 110 fields, fully described below
• Format: parquet (loads in pandas, HF datasets, or any parquet reader)
• No authentication required to load this sample
• Schema and quality are identical to the paid full dataset

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Upgrade to Full Dataset

The full production dataset contains 16,808 rows across 110 columns.

Full dataset access: https://thearticulated.gumroad.com/l/wadakh

After purchase, provide your Hugging Face username and request access on the full dataset page.

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Quick Start

from datasets import load_dataset

dataset = load_dataset("Karmane/mlb-starting-pitcher-strikeout-prop-trends-sample")
df = dataset["data"].to_pandas()
print(f"Rows: {len(df):,}, Columns: {len(df.columns)}")
print(df.head())

Or with pandas directly:

import pandas as pd
df = pd.read_parquet("hf://datasets/Karmane/mlb-starting-pitcher-strikeout-prop-trends-sample/data/data.parquet")
print(df.head())

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Use Cases

• Compare which starters historically clear 5+, 6+, 7+, 8+, or 9+ strikeout thresholds.
• Screen starter rows by recent pitch counts, rest timing, opponent strikeout rates, or prior history against the same team.
• Build time-aware notebooks that keep pregame workload features separate from postgame outcomes.
• Filter by team, opponent, venue, or strikeout environment before building dashboards or exploratory models.

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Column Descriptions

• record_id: Stable row identifier built from the MLB game identifier and actual starting pitcher identifier.
• game_pk: Official MLB game identifier for the completed regular-season game.
• season: MLB season year for the game.
• official_date: Official game date in local calendar terms.
• game_datetime_utc: Scheduled first-pitch timestamp in UTC.
• day_night: MLB day or night game label.
• doubleheader_flag: Boolean flag indicating that the game was part of a doubleheader.
• games_in_series: Number of games scheduled in the series when provided by MLB.
• series_game_number: Game number inside the series when provided by MLB.
• series_description: MLB series label such as Regular Season or Interleague.
• scheduled_innings: Scheduled inning count for the game.
• venue_id: Official MLB venue identifier.
• venue_name: Venue name for the game.
• venue_city: Venue city.
• venue_state: Venue state or province abbreviation when provided by MLB.
• venue_timezone: Venue timezone identifier from the official schedule feed.
• team_id: Official MLB identifier for the starting pitcher's team.
• team_abbreviation: Team abbreviation for the starting pitcher's team.
• team_name: Full team name for the starting pitcher's team.
• opponent_team_id: Official MLB identifier for the opposing team.
• opponent_team_abbreviation: Team abbreviation for the opposing team.
• opponent_team_name: Full team name for the opposing team.
• home_away: Home or away context for the starting pitcher's team.
• is_home: Boolean flag indicating that the starting pitcher's team was at home.
• starter_id: Official MLB player identifier for the actual starting pitcher.
• starter_name: Full player name for the actual starting pitcher.
• probable_starter_id: Official MLB player identifier for the probable starter from the schedule feed.
• probable_starter_name: Name of the probable starter from the schedule feed.
• starter_was_probable: Boolean flag indicating whether the actual starter matched the listed probable starter.
• outs_recorded: Outs recorded by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• innings_pitched: Innings pitched by the starting pitcher, normalized so one out equals one-third of an inning.
• hits_allowed: Hits allowed by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• runs_allowed: Runs allowed by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• earned_runs_allowed: Earned runs allowed by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• walks_allowed: Walks allowed by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• strikeouts_recorded: Strikeouts recorded by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• home_runs_allowed: Home runs allowed by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• batters_faced: Batters faced by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• pitches_thrown: Pitches thrown by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• strikes_thrown: Strikes thrown by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• balls_thrown: Balls thrown by the starting pitcher in the completed game.
• era_display: MLB-reported ERA shown in the box score after the game.
• whip_display: MLB-reported WHIP shown in the box score after the game.
• team_score: Runs scored by the starting pitcher's team in the completed game.
• opponent_score: Runs scored by the opposing team in the completed game.
• team_hits: Hits recorded by the starting pitcher's team in the completed game.
• opponent_hits: Hits recorded by the opposing team in the completed game.
• team_errors: Errors recorded by the starting pitcher's team in the completed game.
• opponent_errors: Errors recorded by the opposing team in the completed game.
• team_won: Boolean flag indicating that the starting pitcher's team won the game.
• strikeout_prop_over_4_5: Boolean outcome flag for whether the starter recorded at least five strikeouts.
• strikeout_prop_over_5_5: Boolean outcome flag for whether the starter recorded at least six strikeouts.
• strikeout_prop_over_6_5: Boolean outcome flag for whether the starter recorded at least seven strikeouts.
• strikeout_prop_over_7_5: Boolean outcome flag for whether the starter recorded at least eight strikeouts.
• strikeout_prop_over_8_5: Boolean outcome flag for whether the starter recorded at least nine strikeouts.
• quality_start_flag: Boolean flag for the common quality-start definition of six or more innings with three or fewer earned runs.
• strikeout_rate_game: Strikeouts divided by batters faced in the completed game.
• walk_rate_game: Walks divided by batters faced in the completed game.
• strikeouts_per_inning_game: Strikeouts divided by innings pitched in the completed game.
• starter_prior_starts: Number of prior completed starts for the same pitcher before this game.
• starter_days_since_prev_start: Days since the pitcher's previous completed start.
• starter_rolling_innings_last_3: Pregame average innings pitched across the pitcher's previous three starts.
• starter_rolling_strikeouts_last_3: Pregame average strikeouts across the pitcher's previous three starts.
• starter_rolling_strikeouts_last_5: Pregame average strikeouts across the pitcher's previous five starts.
• starter_rolling_walks_last_5: Pregame average walks allowed across the pitcher's previous five starts.
• starter_rolling_hits_allowed_last_5: Pregame average hits allowed across the pitcher's previous five starts.
• starter_rolling_earned_runs_last_5: Pregame average earned runs allowed across the pitcher's previous five starts.
• starter_rolling_home_runs_allowed_last_5: Pregame average home runs allowed across the pitcher's previous five starts.
• starter_rolling_batters_faced_last_3: Pregame average batters faced across the pitcher's previous three starts.
• starter_rolling_pitches_last_3: Pregame average pitches thrown across the pitcher's previous three starts.
• starter_rolling_k_rate_last_5: Pregame strikeout rate across the pitcher's previous five starts.
• starter_rolling_bb_rate_last_5: Pregame walk rate across the pitcher's previous five starts.
• starter_rolling_qs_rate_last_10: Pregame share of the pitcher's previous ten starts that qualified as quality starts.
• starter_season_to_date_innings_avg: Pregame season-to-date average innings pitched for the starter.
• starter_season_to_date_k_avg: Pregame season-to-date average strikeouts for the starter.
• starter_season_to_date_pitches_avg: Pregame season-to-date average pitches thrown for the starter.
• starter_season_to_date_k_rate: Pregame season-to-date strikeout rate for the starter.
• starter_season_to_date_qs_rate: Pregame season-to-date quality-start rate for the starter.
• starter_prior_starts_vs_opponent: Number of prior completed starts by the same pitcher against the same opponent before this game.
• starter_prior_k_avg_vs_opponent: Pregame average strikeouts across the pitcher's prior starts against the same opponent.
• starter_prior_k_rate_vs_opponent: Pregame strikeout rate across the pitcher's prior starts against the same opponent.
• team_prior_games: Number of prior completed games for the starting pitcher's team before this game.
• team_days_since_prev_game: Days since the starting pitcher's team played its previous completed game.
• team_rolling_runs_scored_last_5: Pregame average runs scored by the starting pitcher's team across its previous five games.
• team_rolling_hits_last_5: Pregame average hits by the starting pitcher's team across its previous five games.
• team_rolling_walks_drawn_last_5: Pregame average walks drawn by the starting pitcher's team across its previous five games.
• team_rolling_strikeouts_drawn_last_5: Pregame average strikeouts taken by the starting pitcher's team across its previous five games.
• team_rolling_plate_appearances_last_5: Pregame average estimated plate appearances by the starting pitcher's team across its previous five games.
• team_rolling_total_bases_last_5: Pregame average total bases produced by the starting pitcher's team across its previous five games.
• team_rolling_win_pct_last_5: Pregame win percentage for the starting pitcher's team across its previous five games.
• team_season_to_date_runs_scored_avg: Pregame season-to-date average runs scored by the starting pitcher's team.
• team_season_to_date_strikeouts_drawn_avg: Pregame season-to-date average strikeouts taken by the starting pitcher's team.
• team_season_to_date_walks_drawn_avg: Pregame season-to-date average walks drawn by the starting pitcher's team.
• team_season_to_date_k_rate: Pregame season-to-date strikeout rate for the starting pitcher's team offense.
• opponent_team_prior_games: Number of prior completed games for the opposing team before this matchup.
• opponent_team_days_since_prev_game: Days since the opposing team played its previous completed game.
• opponent_team_rolling_runs_scored_last_5: Pregame average runs scored by the opposing team across its previous five games.
• opponent_team_rolling_hits_last_5: Pregame average hits by the opposing team across its previous five games.
• opponent_team_rolling_walks_drawn_last_5: Pregame average walks drawn by the opposing team across its previous five games.
• opponent_team_rolling_strikeouts_drawn_last_5: Pregame average strikeouts taken by the opposing team across its previous five games.
• opponent_team_rolling_plate_appearances_last_5: Pregame average estimated plate appearances by the opposing team across its previous five games.
• opponent_team_rolling_total_bases_last_5: Pregame average total bases produced by the opposing team across its previous five games.
• opponent_team_rolling_win_pct_last_5: Pregame win percentage for the opposing team across its previous five games.
• opponent_team_season_to_date_runs_scored_avg: Pregame season-to-date average runs scored by the opposing team.
• opponent_team_season_to_date_strikeouts_drawn_avg: Pregame season-to-date average strikeouts taken by the opposing team.
• opponent_team_season_to_date_walks_drawn_avg: Pregame season-to-date average walks drawn by the opposing team.
• opponent_team_season_to_date_k_rate: Pregame season-to-date strikeout rate for the opposing team offense.
• source_url: Official MLB boxscore endpoint URL for the game.
• source_domain: Source domain list used to build the row.
• last_collected_at: UTC timestamp when the current dataset build finished.

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Dataset Structure

• Rows: 840
• Columns: 110
• Split: data
• File: data/data.parquet

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Full Dataset Access

	Sample (this repo)	Full Dataset
Rows	840	16,808
Columns	110	110
Auth required	No	Yes (after purchase)
Price	Free	See pricing

Final CTA

Get the full dataset: https://thearticulated.gumroad.com/l/mlb-starting-pitcher-strikeout-prop-trends

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Karmane. (2025). MLB Starting Pitcher Strikeout Prop Dataset for Historical K Research (Free Sample). Hugging Face. https://huggingface.co/datasets/Karmane/mlb-starting-pitcher-strikeout-prop-trends-sample