question_text string | date_close string | event_date string | resolution_criteria string | question_type string | prediction_date string | correct_answer int64 | label_confidence float64 | resolution_date string | sample_id string | answer_type string | answer_parser_type string | reward_function_type string | prompt list | context list | reasoning_format_key string | parsed_answer string | tool_call_count int64 | reasoning string | all_messages string | rollout_id int64 | input_tokens int64 | output_tokens int64 | cost null | reward_score float64 | binary_brier_score float64 | pointwise_prediction_std float64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.8 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
Context: Articles indicate that Andhra Pradesh High Court cancelled d... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,508 | 734 | null | -1.609438 | 0.64 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
We have context: Articles from November 20, 2025 indicate the Andhra ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 1,508 | 1,330 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to AP liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026. Context: Articles show High Court cancelled default bail and ordered surrender by Nov ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 1,508 | 1,005 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.73 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026. We have context: HC cancelled default bail and ordered surrender before Nov 26. The question date is Nov 26 2025; the HC order say... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 1,508 | 1,192 | null | -1.309333 | 0.5329 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.78 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into custody between 27 Nov 2025 and 15 Feb 2026.
Context: HC cancelled default bail on 20 Nov 2025, ordered surrender by 26 Nov. Today is 26 Nov 2025. So by today, deadline is that day. Likely to happen soon (they must... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 1,508 | 1,141 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody between Nov 27, 2025 and Feb 15, 2026.
We have context: HC canceled default bail on Nov 20, ordered surrender before Nov 26. So as of today (Nov 26) they are supposed... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 1,508 | 1,770 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.75 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026. Context:
- As of Nov 20, 2025, Andhra Pradesh High Court cancelled default bail and ordered them to surrender before Nov 26. So ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 1,508 | 1,331 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 | 0.22739 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.004 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant similar award before Feb 15, 2026 (i.e., within next ~2.5 months from today 2025-11-26).... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 915 | 910 | null | -0.004008 | 0.000016 | 0.091533 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need estimate probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' or similar award before Feb 15 2026 (i.e., between now 2025-11-26 and that date). Context: Only given two articles. No mention of Bantul. N... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 915 | 1,183 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | 0.091533 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.1 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade or Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy will officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant similar official award before Feb 15, 2026.... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 915 | 1,157 | null | -0.105361 | 0.01 | 0.091533 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.28 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will officially designate Bantul Regency as a "National Creative Economy Export Center" (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant a similar official national award for export excellence before Feb 15 2026.
We have co... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 915 | 1,050 | null | -0.328504 | 0.0784 | 0.091533 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade (or Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy) will officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant similar national award for export excelle... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 915 | 935 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | 0.091533 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.27 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will officially designate Bantul Regency as a National Creative Economy Export Center or similar award before Feb 15, 2026. Today is November 26, 2025. So there's about 2.5 months window (Nov 26 to Feb 15). We have limited c... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 915 | 1,009 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 | 0.091533 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will officially designate Bantul Regency as a "National Creative Economy Export Center" or similar award before Feb 15, 2026. Today is Nov 26, 2025. So window of about 2.5 months (Dec, Jan, up to Feb 15). Need to assess likel... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 915 | 1,249 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | 0.091533 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
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"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.28 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue a formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026.
We have context: "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 496 | 901 | null | -0.328504 | 0.0784 | 0.083495 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue a formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026.
We have no context info: "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this q... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 496 | 1,003 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | 0.083495 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce probability that the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue a formal order for the return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15, 2026.
We have no specific context given besides "NEWS: Recent new... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 496 | 736 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | 0.083495 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.17 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026.
We have no specific context besides "Recent news articles relevant to... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 496 | 1,113 | null | -0.18633 | 0.0289 | 0.083495 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issues formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026.
We have no detailed context. The "NEWS:" section is empty; no info about this ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 496 | 904 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | 0.083495 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026.
We have no context article provided (empty). There is no info about case.... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 496 | 754 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | 0.083495 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue a formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026. Need to use context: There is no specific news given (the "NEWS:" sectio... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 496 | 895 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 | 0.083495 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges (i.e., include 18 U.S.C. Chapter 113B counts) by Jan 15, 2026. Today is Nov 27, 2025 (the day of shooting). So they have about ~1.5 months (approx 49 days) to file such charges. We have context: news articles ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,248 | 1,105 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 | 0.142771 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges (i.e., an indictment or criminal complaint including a count under 18 U.S.C. Chapter 113B or specific terrorism language) against suspect (Rahmanullah Lakanwal) by Jan 15, 2026.
Current date 2025-1... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 2,248 | 2,295 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 | 0.142771 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.7 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to produce probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges (under 18 USC Chapter 113B or specific language) against the suspect (Rahmanullah Lakanwal) by Jan 15, 2026. The context date is Nov 27, 2025 (today). The shooting occurred Nov 27? Actually shooting... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 2,248 | 1,208 | null | -1.203973 | 0.49 | 0.142771 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges against suspect by Jan 15, 2026.
Context: Shooting occurred Nov 27, 2025. Articles up to Nov 26 (the day before). Actually first article says date 2025-11-26 (shooting phrase "near White House" maybe on 26th)... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 2,248 | 1,236 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.142771 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges (i.e., indictment/complaint under 18 USC Ch 113B) by Jan 15, 2026.
Context: Incident happened Nov 27, 2025 (today date). As of now, no terrorism charges have been filed; only assault, murder, weapons charges.... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 2,248 | 1,027 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.142771 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.34 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges (i.e., indictment or criminal complaint with 18 U.S.C. Chapter 113B or similar) against suspect Rahmanullah Lakanwal by Jan 15 2026. Today is Nov 27 2025 (the day after shooting? Actually shooting on ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 2,248 | 1,094 | null | -0.415515 | 0.1156 | 0.142771 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.6 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges (i.e., 18 USC 113B) against the suspect in the shooting of two West Virginia National Guard members (Nov 27, 2025). Deadline Jan 15, 2026.
Context: Several news articles from Nov 26-27 reporting t... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 2,248 | 1,716 | null | -0.916291 | 0.36 | 0.142771 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as next rector of USP by Jan 15 2026.
We have no specific context in the prompt - no news articles provided (empty). So we must rely on general knowledge and reasoning.
We need to consider polit... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 508 | 1,266 | null | -1.108663 | 0.4489 | 0.174824 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as rector of USP by Jan 15 2026.
We have no specific news context provided. It says "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but none are listed. So we have no direct info. We mu... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 508 | 1,318 | null | -2.120264 | 0.7744 | 0.174824 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as next rector of USP by Jan 15 2026.
We need to consider context. No news provided (blank). So we rely on general knowledge: Tarcísio de Freitas is governor of São Paulo (elected 2022, term 20... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 508 | 1,155 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 | 0.174824 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.05 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of USP by Jan 15 2026.
We have limited context: No news provided. We need to reason using reference classes: appointments of university rectors in Brazil, political influence, ti... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 508 | 998 | null | -2.995732 | 0.9025 | 0.174824 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.63 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as next rector of USP by Jan 15, 2026.
We have no context news provided (empty). We need to consider political context: Tarcísio de Freitas is governor of São Paulo, elected 2022, term up to 20... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 508 | 1,080 | null | -0.462035 | 0.1369 | 0.174824 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of Sao Paulo will appoint Aluísio Segurado as next rector of USP by Jan 15, 2026.
We have no recent news context provided. We must rely on background knowledge of São Paulo politics, the selection process for USP rector, an... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 508 | 1,471 | null | -0.967584 | 0.3844 | 0.174824 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.32 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as next rector of USP by Jan 15 2026.
We need to consider context. No news provided. We have to use knowledge up to 2025-11-27. So we must rely on background knowledge: Tarcísio de Freitas is G... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 508 | 1,359 | null | -1.139434 | 0.4624 | 0.174824 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.65 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that by Feb 1, 2026, DHS or White House will formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status of all Afghan nationals under Operation Allies Welcome (OAW). We have context: recent incident (Nov 26 2025) where Afghan national shot near Wh... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,322 | 1,239 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.128285 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.36 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that before Feb 1, 2026, DHS or White House will formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under Operation Allies Welcome (OAW). Must be a universal, blanket policy affecting all Afghan OAW entr... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 1,322 | 1,379 | null | -1.021651 | 0.4096 | 0.128285 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that by Feb 1, 2026, DHS or White House will formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under Operation Allies Welcome (OAW). The question wants a universal, blanket policy, not individual cases.... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 1,322 | 912 | null | -1.049822 | 0.4225 | 0.128285 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.48 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: forecast probability that before Feb 1, 2026, the DHS or White House will formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status for all Afghan nationals who entered under Operation Allies Welcome (OAW). Formal announcement: memo, press release, exec order, etc. Bl... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 1,322 | 1,816 | null | -0.733969 | 0.2704 | 0.128285 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that by Feb 1, 2026, DHS or White House will issue formal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status for all Afghan nationals who entered under OAW (Operation Allies Welcome). This is a blanket policy, not individual.
Context: Recent events: a security incid... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 1,322 | 1,008 | null | -0.916291 | 0.36 | 0.128285 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that by Feb 1 2026, DHS or White House will formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under Operation Allies Welcome (OAW). This is a blanket policy for all Afghan nationals in OAW, not individu... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 1,322 | 1,091 | null | -1.108663 | 0.4489 | 0.128285 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.65 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that by Feb 1 2026 (close date) DHS or White House will issue a formal federal policy to re-vet or rescind parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under OAW.
We have context: recent incident (Nov 26 2025) where Afghan national shot near White Hous... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 1,322 | 1,266 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.128285 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that AP-Transco will create dedicated SPV or task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1 2026. Need to consider context. But the provided context is minimal: just news articles relevant, but not included. There's no specific info. ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 490 | 964 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.041305 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that AP-Transco will create a dedicated SPV or task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1 2026. Context: There's news articles, but none provided. The prompt says "Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but blank. So we h... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 490 | 926 | null | -0.510826 | 0.16 | 0.041305 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that AP-Transco will create a dedicated SPV or task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1, 2026. We have no specific context given; news not provided. So need to rely on typical behavior, reference class forecasting etc.
We need ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 490 | 1,105 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 | 0.041305 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to analyze probability AP-Transco creates a dedicated SPV or task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1 2026.
We have context: only mention "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but no actual articles provided. So we have no explicit e... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 490 | 1,048 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | 0.041305 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) will create a dedicated SPV or new task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1, 2026. Need to consider context: There is "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this questio... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 490 | 1,004 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.041305 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that AP-Transco will create a dedicated SPV or new task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1, 2026. Context: There's no news provided in prompt; "Recent news articles relevant to this question:" is blank. So we have no direct inf... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 490 | 1,244 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.041305 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.27 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that AP-Transco will create a dedicated SPV or task force for oversight of 29 industrial substations, by Feb 1 2026. We have only limited context: "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but none are listed (empty). So we have no direct eviden... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 490 | 1,501 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 | 0.041305 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The user asks: "Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026?" We need to forecast probability that by March 1, 2026, the DOJ files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' fo... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 449 | 1,070 | null | -1.89712 | 0.7225 | 0.077063 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.24 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will formally announce seeking death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026.
We have limited context: No specific info about Rahmanullah Lakanwal. Need to consider typical DOJ behavior, death penalty seeking in ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 449 | 973 | null | -1.427116 | 0.5776 | 0.077063 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will file a death penalty notice for Rahmanullah Lakanwal by March 1, 2026.
We have no specific context info about this case. The prompt includes "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but no actual articles are provided. So we hav... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 449 | 865 | null | -2.120264 | 0.7744 | 0.077063 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need estimate probability DOJ will file notice of intent to seek death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal by March 1, 2026. Need context: The question gives no news articles. So we have no direct info about Lakanwal. Likely a case about shooting of National Guard members. We must consider... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 449 | 632 | null | -1.714798 | 0.6724 | 0.077063 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.32 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability DOJ will file a notice of intent to seek death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal by March 1 2026.
We have no specific context info about this case. It's a hypothetical? Need to assume typical DOJ behavior; death penalty sought in federal case for murder of Nati... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 449 | 864 | null | -1.139434 | 0.4624 | 0.077063 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need forecast probability DOJ will file death penalty notice by March 1 2026 for Rahmanullah Lakanwal. Need context: no news given? The context section says "NEWS: Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but blank. So we have no info about the case.
We must use reference class... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 449 | 689 | null | -1.203973 | 0.49 | 0.077063 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that DOJ will formally announce seeking death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026. Need to consider context: no news given. Possibly no known case. The question is about a specific individual, likely a suspect in shoot... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 449 | 922 | null | -2.120264 | 0.7744 | 0.077063 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that DOJ will file a criminal complaint or indictment with charge 18 USC §2332b or §2339B by Feb 20 2026, given current context. We have news about shooting 2025-11-26, suspect identified, some mention of murder indictment (specialist died). The articles mention "author... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,440 | 1,232 | null | -0.510826 | 0.16 | 0.090824 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.46 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that DOJ will file a criminal complaint/indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes charge under 18 USC 2332b or 2339B by Feb 20 2026.
We have context: November 26 2025 shooting. He is in custody, charges include murder indictment and potentially ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 1,440 | 771 | null | -0.616186 | 0.2116 | 0.090824 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that DOJ files criminal complaint/indictment that includes charge under §2332b or §2339B by Feb 20 2026. we have context: recent shooting on Nov 26 2025. Lakanwal arrested, facing charges including murder indictment. It's being treated as terrorism investigation. Likeli... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 1,440 | 1,250 | null | -0.510826 | 0.16 | 0.090824 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.58 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that DOJ will file a criminal complaint/indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal with a charge under 18 USC 2332b or 2339B by Feb 20, 2026. Context: The shooting occurred Nov 26, 2025. Lakanwal is in custody. They mentioned "authorities are treating the case as an ongoin... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 1,440 | 1,209 | null | -0.867501 | 0.3364 | 0.090824 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that DOJ will file a criminal complaint/indictment charging Rahmanullah Lakanwal under 18 U.S.C. §2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or §2339B (material support) by Feb 20 2026. Need to assess based on context.
We have recent news (Nov 26 2025) ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 1,440 | 1,336 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.090824 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.32 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that DOJ files a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or § 2339B by Feb 20 2026. Context: Shooting occurred Nov 26 2025. News articles report that suspect is in custody, facing charges, ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 1,440 | 1,159 | null | -0.385662 | 0.1024 | 0.090824 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.55 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that DOJ will file a criminal complaint/indictment including 18 USC §2332b or 2339B against Rahmanullah Lakanwal by Feb 20 2026.
We have recent news: shooting in November 2025; suspect identified; authorities treating as terrorism investigation; there is murd... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 1,440 | 1,437 | null | -0.798508 | 0.3025 | 0.090824 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Governor of São Paulo (Tarcísio de Freitas) will break tradition and appoint a candidate other than first-place finisher (Aluísio Segurado) to be rector of USP for 2026-2030 term. The election was on Nov 27, 2025, first-place Aluísio, second Ana Lúcia D... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 729 | 882 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | 0.041894 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor of São Paulo Tarcísio de Freitas appoints a candidate other than the first-place finisher Aluísio Segurado to the rector term (2026–2030), i.e., appoint Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna (2nd) or Marcílio Alves (3rd). Tradition: appoint most-voted candida... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 729 | 1,170 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | 0.041894 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint a candidate other than Aluísio Segurado (who is first place) for rector of USP for 2026-2030 term, i.e., appoint either second or third place (Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves), thus breaking tradition.
... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 729 | 1,254 | null | -0.287682 | 0.0625 | 0.041894 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor of São Paulo appoints a candidate other than the first-place finisher (Aluísio Segurado) to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term. Need to evaluate the likelihood that the Governor breaks tradition. The election took place November... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 729 | 1,173 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | 0.041894 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint a candidate other than Aluísio Segurado (i.e., second or third place) as Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term. The election took place on November 27, 2025. Tradition: appoint the most-voted candidate. Breaking tradition is... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 729 | 973 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | 0.041894 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.14 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Governor of São Paulo (Tarcísio de Freitas) will appoint a candidate other than first-place finisher Aluísio Segurado to rectorship of USP for 2026-2030 term. Context: The election was on November 27, 2025, with Aluísio Segurado first place, Ana Lúcia D... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 729 | 1,030 | null | -0.150823 | 0.0196 | 0.041894 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint a candidate other than first-place finisher Aluísio Segurado to the office of Rector of USP for 2026–2030 term, i.e., appoint Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (second/third place) before Jan 25 2026.
We... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 729 | 1,198 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 | 0.041894 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.93 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Trump admin will issue an executive order or DHS directive explicitly mandating re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under Biden by Jan 31 2026. The context includes several news articles from November 2025 detailing a memo from USCIS director Jo... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,917 | 1,166 | null | -2.65926 | 0.8649 | 0.179671 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.48 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Trump administration will issue an executive order or DHS directive explicitly mandating re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by Jan 31, 2026.
We have context: Several news articles (Nov 2025) show a memo from USCI... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 1,917 | 1,882 | null | -0.653926 | 0.2304 | 0.179671 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.48 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Trump administration will issue an executive order or DHS directive explicitly mandating re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under Biden by Jan 31, 2026.
We have context: November 2025 articles (today 2025-11-27). The Trump administration alrea... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 1,917 | 1,114 | null | -0.653926 | 0.2304 | 0.179671 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.65 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Trump administration will issue an executive order or DHS directive explicitly mandating re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under Biden by Jan 31, 2026.
We have context articles about November 2025. They discuss a USCIS memo ordering review of... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 1,917 | 1,627 | null | -1.049822 | 0.4225 | 0.179671 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.85 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that the Trump administration will issue an executive order or DHS directive explicitly mandating re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under Biden administration by Jan 31, 2026.
We have context: Several news articles from November 2025.
Articles 1-3:... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 1,917 | 1,936 | null | -1.89712 | 0.7225 | 0.179671 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.75 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that the Trump administration will issue an executive order or DHS directive mandating re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under Biden by Jan 31, 2026.
Context: articles show, November 2025, Trump administration orders review of all refugees admitted under Bide... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 1,917 | 1,328 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 | 0.179671 |
Will the Trump administration issue an executive order or an official Department of Homeland Security directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under the Biden administration by January 31, 2026? | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if, on or before January 31, 2026, the President of the United States or the Department of Homeland Security issues an official written policy, executive order, or memorandum that explicitly requires a review or re-investigation of the eligibility or security status of the entire class of... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-31T00:00:00 | 57de222b-8d38-466b-87bc-c42cf839c19b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump administration orders review of Biden-era refugees, memo shows (published on 2025-11-24 by reuters.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Trump's administration ordered a broad review of all refugees admitted under former President Joe... | strategy_choice | 0.45 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that the Trump administration (as of date 2025-11-27) will issue an executive order or DHS directive explicitly mandating the re-vetting of all Afghan nationals admitted under Biden administration by Jan 31, 2026.
We have context: Several news articles (1-8... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 1,917 | 1,803 | null | -0.597837 | 0.2025 | 0.179671 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that 'Andhra King Taluka' will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025. Today is Nov 27, 2025. Film released Nov 27 2025 (or Nov 28). So we have about 2 weeks until Dec 11. We have news about early box office. Let's examine context.
Articles:
... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,151 | 1,166 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | 0.044217 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that Andhra King Taluka will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025.
We have context: release on Nov 27, 2025. So about 2 weeks window until Dec 11.
Articles:
- Strong US start: crosses USD 40k, potentially beating earlier US premiere day r... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 2,151 | 911 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | 0.044217 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that 'Andhra King Taluka' will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025.
We have context: film released Nov 27, 2025. So ~2 weeks or 14 days time window up to Dec 11.
We have articles:
- article 1 says US premiere at strong start, crosses USD ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 2,151 | 1,321 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | 0.044217 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that 'Andhra King Taluka' will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025. We have context up to Nov 27 (release date) and some articles about early US premieres and estimates. Need to incorporate uncertainty.
First, interpret 50 crore INR = 500 m... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 2,151 | 1,059 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | 0.044217 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.27 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that the film "Andhra King Taluka" will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025. Today is Nov 27, 2025. Release date is Nov 27 (or 28) 2025. So about two weeks of box office.
We have news: strong start in USA, early advance sales USD ~42k, pre-... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 2,151 | 1,196 | null | -0.314711 | 0.0729 | 0.044217 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that 'Andhra King Taluka' will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025.
We have context: film release date Nov 27, 2025. So we have roughly two weeks window. We need to estimate gross box office.
We have data: article says US advance sales $42... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 2,151 | 1,195 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 | 0.044217 |
Will 'Andhra King Taluka' earn at least 50 crore (500 million) INR in gross box office collections worldwide by December 11, 2025? | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if reputable film industry trackers (e.g., Box Office India, Pinkvilla, or Variety) or official production house statements report that the cumulative worldwide gross box office for the film 'Andhra King Taluka' has reached or exceeded 50 crore INR. If the reported figure is below 50 cror... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-11T00:00:00 | 62e21a48-b965-429e-aeb3-6f3042c11b63 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Ram Pothineni's 'Andhra King Taluka' off to strong start for USA premieres, crosses USD 40,000 mark (published on 2025-11-25 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Ram Pothineni's emotional entertainer *Andhra King... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that "Andhra King Taluka" will earn at least 50 crore INR worldwide by Dec 11, 2025.
We have context: film release Nov 27, 2025 (or 28). So about two weeks window until Dec 11.
We have several articles: Strong start in USA, crosses USD 40k. Another says pr... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 2,151 | 943 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | 0.044217 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
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"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
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"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that any of four suspects (wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, Karan) will be granted regular bail by Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15, 2026. Today is Nov 27 2025, so about 1.5 months left.
We need to consider Indian criminal justice timel... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 474 | 926 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | 0.141796 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.53 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>The task: Predict probability that any of the four suspects (wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, Karan) will be granted regular bail by Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15 2026. Today's date is Nov 27 2025, so about ~1.5 months remaining.
We need to use context, but the con... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 474 | 1,107 | null | -0.755023 | 0.2809 | 0.141796 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that any of the four suspects (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, Karan) will be granted regular bail by Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15, 2026. Today is Nov 27, 2025. So we have about 1.5 months (approx 49 days). Need to assess likeli... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 474 | 780 | null | -0.287682 | 0.0625 | 0.141796 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that any of four suspects (wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, Karan) will be granted regular bail by Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15, 2026.
We have date now 2025-11-27. So time window ~1.5 months approx (till Jan 15, 2026). So limited te... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 474 | 991 | null | -0.287682 | 0.0625 | 0.141796 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that any of four suspects (wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, Karan) get regular bail by Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15 2026. Today is Nov 27 2025. So about 1.5 months left. We need to assess likelihood. No context given news. We must re... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 474 | 1,427 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | 0.141796 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that any of four suspects identified in Sachin Sharma attack will be granted regular bail by Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15, 2026. Today is Nov 27 2025, about 1.5 months to close date (approx 49 days). Need to assess likely judicia... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 474 | 1,250 | null | -0.287682 | 0.0625 | 0.141796 |
Will any of the four suspects identified in the Sachin Sharma attack (the wife, Rahul Kumar, Jogendra, or Karan) be granted regular bail by the Agra District Court or the Allahabad High Court before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if any official judicial order is issued by the Agra District and Sessions Court or the Allahabad High Court granting regular bail (not interim bail) to any of the four primary suspects named in the police investigation of the November 21 attack on Sachin Sharma. This will be verified thro... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 6a9bc35b-5d39-4b7e-bdc5-c756b91adde6 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Sachin Sharma attack wife Rahul Kumar Jogendra Karan regular bail Agra District Court; Rahul Kumar bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack; Jogendra bail Allahabad High Court Sachin Sharma attack regular bail; Karan bail A... | strategy_choice | 0.04 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability any of the four suspects gets regular bail from Agra District Court or Allahabad High Court before Jan 15 2026. Current date 2025-11-27, about ~1.5 months left. Need to consider typical bail timelines in Indian criminal cases for serious offenses (likely mur... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 474 | 1,040 | null | -0.040822 | 0.0016 | 0.141796 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.88 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceeds 2,000 at any point before Jan 15 2026 (i.e., from today 2025-11-27 to that date). The context shows that as of late November 2025, over 2,000 troops are already deployed. Article... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,125 | 1,418 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | 0.030573 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.92 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. will exceed 2,000 at any point before Jan 15 2026.
We have context: As of early Nov 2025, multiple articles indicate deployment already over 2,000, with extensions through February 2026... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 2,125 | 1,026 | null | -0.083382 | 0.0064 | 0.030573 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.9 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in D.C. exceeds 2,000 at any point before Jan 15, 2026.
We have context: multiple recent news articles (dated Oct-Nov 2025) indicate that Trump administration has already deployed more than 2,000 troops to... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 2,125 | 1,180 | null | -0.105361 | 0.01 | 0.030573 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.94 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceeds 2,000 at any point before Jan 15, 2026.
We have context: As of early August 2025, Trump deployed >2,200 troops to DC. Many articles show deployments remain >2,000 through Novemb... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 2,125 | 1,067 | null | -0.061875 | 0.0036 | 0.030573 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.97 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. will exceed 2,000 at any point before Jan 15, 2026, given today is Nov 27, 2025. Context: as of early November 2025 deployment >2,300, mission extended through Feb 2026 (article 7). Seve... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 2,125 | 1,234 | null | -0.030459 | 0.0009 | 0.030573 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.88 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington DC exceeds 2,000 at any point before Jan 15 2026. Date today is Nov 27 2025. The context indicates current deployments already exceed 2,000. Several articles mention >2,000 troops deployed since August 20... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 2,125 | 2,003 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | 0.030573 |
Will the total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceed 2,000 at any point before January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the U.S. Department of Defense, the National Guard Bureau, or the D.C. Mayor's Office officially reports that the active deployment of National Guard personnel within the District of Columbia has reached or exceeded 2,001 members between November 27, 2025, and January 15, 2026. This in... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 78827f34-2326-4866-8600-75482ed0a3c4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] As Trump continues illegally federalizing the National Guard, California doubles down on challenge (published on 2025-10-31 by gov.ca.gov) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: California's Governor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Rob Bonta as... | strategy_choice | 0.93 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that total number of National Guard troops deployed in Washington, D.C. exceeds 2,000 at any point before Jan 15, 2026, given context as of Nov 27 2025.
We have many news articles indicating:
- As of early August 2025, Trump deployed more than 2,200 Guard tr... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 6 | 2,125 | 1,363 | null | -0.072571 | 0.0049 | 0.030573 |
Will the National Guard troops deployed for law enforcement assistance in Washington D.C. be officially withdrawn from the city before December 31, 2025? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Department of Defense, the Department of the Army, or the White House announces the completion of the withdrawal of the federally deployed National Guard units (excluding the permanent D.C. National Guard) from the streets of Washington D.C. following the expiration of the judicial... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 7d859107-0993-462f-a694-cb5d397be289 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Exclusive: National Guard orders in DC extended through February 2026 (published on 2025-10-29 by cnn.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: National Guard troops mobilized in Washington, D.C. will remain through February 2026, according to ... | strategy_choice | 0.33 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that National Guard troops deployed for law enforcement assistance in Washington D.C. will be officially withdrawn before Dec 31 2025. The context: multiple news articles indicate extension through Feb 2026. There is a judicial pause, with a judge ordering e... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,047 | 1,495 | null | -0.400478 | 0.1089 | 0.10406 |
Will the National Guard troops deployed for law enforcement assistance in Washington D.C. be officially withdrawn from the city before December 31, 2025? | 2025-12-31T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Department of Defense, the Department of the Army, or the White House announces the completion of the withdrawal of the federally deployed National Guard units (excluding the permanent D.C. National Guard) from the streets of Washington D.C. following the expiration of the judicial... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 7d859107-0993-462f-a694-cb5d397be289 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Exclusive: National Guard orders in DC extended through February 2026 (published on 2025-10-29 by cnn.com) (relevance: 6.0)\nSummary: National Guard troops mobilized in Washington, D.C. will remain through February 2026, according to ... | strategy_choice | 0.12 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that National Guard troops deployed for law enforcement assistance in Washington D.C. will be officially withdrawn before Dec 31, 2025.
We have context articles up to November 2025. Many indicate extensions through Feb 2026. Some mention judge order to end deployment b... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 2,047 | 1,049 | null | -0.127833 | 0.0144 | 0.10406 |
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