question_text string | date_close string | event_date string | resolution_criteria string | question_type string | prediction_date string | correct_answer int64 | label_confidence float64 | resolution_date string | sample_id string | answer_type string | answer_parser_type string | reward_function_type string | prompt list | context list | reasoning_format_key string | parsed_answer string | tool_call_count int64 | reasoning string | all_messages string | rollout_id int64 | input_tokens int64 | output_tokens int64 | cost null | reward_score float64 | binary_brier_score float64 | pointwise_prediction_std float64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.8 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
Context: Articles indicate that Andhra Pradesh High Court cancelled d... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,508 | 734 | null | -1.609438 | 0.64 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.38 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026.
We have context: Articles from November 20, 2025 indicate the Andhra ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 1 | 1,508 | 1,330 | null | -0.478036 | 0.1444 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.35 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to AP liquor scam investigation between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026. Context: Articles show High Court cancelled default bail and ordered surrender by Nov ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 2 | 1,508 | 1,005 | null | -0.430783 | 0.1225 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.73 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026. We have context: HC cancelled default bail and ordered surrender before Nov 26. The question date is Nov 26 2025; the HC order say... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 3 | 1,508 | 1,192 | null | -1.309333 | 0.5329 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.78 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into custody between 27 Nov 2025 and 15 Feb 2026.
Context: HC cancelled default bail on 20 Nov 2025, ordered surrender by 26 Nov. Today is 26 Nov 2025. So by today, deadline is that day. Likely to happen soon (they must... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 4 | 1,508 | 1,141 | null | -1.514128 | 0.6084 | 0.22739 |
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.22 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to estimate probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into judicial custody between Nov 27, 2025 and Feb 15, 2026.
We have context: HC canceled default bail on Nov 20, ordered surrender before Nov 26. So as of today (Nov 26) they are supposed... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 5 | 1,508 | 1,770 | null | -0.248461 | 0.0484 | 0.22739 |
"Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation t(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or (...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to e(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused(...TRUNCATED) | strategy_choice | 0.75 | 0 | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya R(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 6 | 1,508 | 1,331 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 | 0.22739 |
"Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative E(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to e(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri (...TRUNCATED) | strategy_choice | 0.004 | 0 | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to predict probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 0 | 915 | 910 | null | -0.004008 | 0.000016 | 0.091533 |
"Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative E(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to e(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri (...TRUNCATED) | strategy_choice | 0.18 | 0 | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need estimate probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade will o(...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 1 | 915 | 1,183 | null | -0.198451 | 0.0324 | 0.091533 |
"Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative E(...TRUNCATED) | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade(...TRUNCATED) | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [{"content":"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to e(...TRUNCATED) | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri (...TRUNCATED) | strategy_choice | 0.1 | 0 | "<|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to forecast probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade or (...TRUNCATED) | "[{\"content\": \"You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is(...TRUNCATED) | 2 | 915 | 1,157 | null | -0.105361 | 0.01 | 0.091533 |
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