question_text string | date_close string | event_date string | resolution_criteria string | question_type string | prediction_date string | correct_answer int64 | label_confidence float64 | resolution_date string | sample_id string | answer_type string | answer_parser_type string | reward_function_type string | prompt list | context list | reasoning_format_key string | parsed_answer string | tool_call_count int64 | reasoning string | all_messages string | rollout_id int64 | input_tokens int64 | output_tokens int64 | cost null | reward_score float64 | binary_brier_score float64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will former IAS officer K Dhanunjaya Reddy be arrested or taken into judicial custody in relation to the Andhra Pradesh liquor scam investigation between November 27, 2025, and February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if K Dhanunjaya Reddy is physically taken into custody (arrested or surrendered for incarceration) by law enforcement or judicial authorities in Andhra Pradesh or by central agencies (e.g., ED) during the specified window. This requires either the Supreme Court lifting his current protect... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-21T00:00:00 | c78331ff-4245-4e6a-8f14-164183fb66b4 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] HC orders liquor scam accused to surrender by Nov 26 (published on 2025-11-20 by thehansindia.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The Andhra Pradesh High Court partially allowed the CID's petition against default bail granted by the ACB C... | strategy_choice | 0.6 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that K Dhanunjaya Reddy will be arrested or taken into custody between Nov 27 2025 and Feb 15 2026. Context: High Court ordered bail cancellation and surrender by Nov 26. As of Nov 26 (today), they must surrender to ACB court. Likely they will surrender/appear. Possibly... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,508 | 537 | null | -0.916291 | 0.36 |
Will the Indonesian Ministry of Trade officially designate Bantul Regency as a 'National Creative Economy Export Center' (Pusat Ekspor Ekonomi Kreatif Nasional) or grant it a similar official national award for export excellence before February 15, 2026? | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if a formal announcement is made by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade (Kementerian Perdagangan RI) or the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy (Kemenparekraf) between November 26, 2025, and February 15, 2026, granting Bantul Regency a specific national designation or award recognizing ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | d8c8705c-6174-455b-8c97-6c0be0869974 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Pembukaan JMFW 2026, Menteri Perdagangan Perkuat Modest Fashion Indonesia (published on 2025-11-07 by chanelmuslim.com) (relevance: 2.0)\nSummary: Pembukaan Jakarta Muslim Fashion Week (JMFW) 2026, 6–9 November 2025 di Kartika Expo Ce... | strategy_choice | 0.15 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need estimate probability that Indonesian Ministry of Trade or Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy will officially designate Bantul Regency as a National Creative Economy Export Center (or similar award) before Feb 15 2026. Context: recent news about modest fashion, export efforts,... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 915 | 398 | null | -0.162519 | 0.0225 |
Will the Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur issue a formal order for the return of the recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to the original manufacturer or the transport company by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if there is a public report or official court record indicating that the Ambur Taluk police or the local magistrate has granted 'interim custody' or 'return of property' (under Section 451 of CrPC/Section 503 of BNSS) of the recovered spare parts to the private car making unit from Oragadam... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-26T00:00:00 | 0 | 0.9 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | db2a53ee-c319-4d46-82f9-cb98aaa9a442 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Ambur Judicial Magistrate recovered car spare parts ₹20 lakh return order January 2026; Ambur court judicial magistrate recovered spare parts return to manufacturer transport company; \"Ambur\" Judicial Magistrate car spare parts... | strategy_choice | 0.2 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that Judicial Magistrate court in Ambur will issue formal order for return of recovered ₹20 lakh worth of car spare parts to original manufacturer or transport company by Jan 15 2026.
We have no context news provided (empty). So no specifics. Likely such case... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 496 | 382 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 |
Will federal prosecutors file terrorism-related charges against the suspect in the November 27 shooting of the two West Virginia National Guardsmen by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to Yes if a federal indictment or a criminal complaint filed by the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) includes at least one count under 18 U.S. Code Chapter 113B (Terrorism) or specifically charges the suspect with 'acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries' or 'providing materia... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 26191600-70a3-44f4-bb83-f9ccc218bfb2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 2 West Virginia National Guard troops critical after shooting near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by wjla.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Two West Virginia National Guard troops were critically injured in a shooting near the Whi... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that federal prosecutors will file terrorism-related charges by Jan 15, 2026. Context: Shooting on Nov 26-27 2025. As of articles (Nov 26), suspect charged with assault with intent to kill, firearm possession etc. Prosecutors say could upgrade. FBI investigating as inte... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 2,248 | 621 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado as the next rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) by January 15, 2026? | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the Governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, officially appoints Aluísio Cotrim Segurado to the position of Rector of the University of São Paulo (USP) on or before January 15, 2026. The appointment must be published in the Diário Oficial do Estado de São Paulo or announced via an ... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 29eab176-7150-4ffb-8611-6a2a3e1331c2 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Tarcísio de Freitas appoint Aluísio Segurado rector USP; Aluísio Segurado next rector USP news; USP rector election process Aluísio Segurado list of candidates; Governor appoints USP rector January 2026 deadline; USP rector appoi... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that by Jan 15 2026 Gov Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint Aluísio Segurado as rector of USP.
We have no specific news given (empty). We need to think about political context: Brazil, São Paulo state. Tarcísio de Freitas is governor of São Paulo since Jan 2023,... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 508 | 590 | null | -1.203973 | 0.49 |
Will the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or the White House formally announce a federal policy to re-vet or rescind the parole status of all Afghan nationals who entered under 'Operation Allies Welcome' before February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or the White House issues an official memorandum, press release, or executive order explicitly stating that all Afghan nationals brought to the U.S. under 'Operation Allies Welcome' will be subject to a mandatory universal re-vetting process... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 0.9 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 31f4243c-aff4-47b7-9211-1af95e99b82b | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] National Guard Members Shot Near White House (published on 2025-11-26 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: A 29-year-old Afghan man, Rahmanullah Lakanwal, accused of critically wounding two West Virginia National Guard members n... | strategy_choice | 0.25 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that DHS or White House will formally announce a blanket re-vetting or rescind parole for all Afghan nationals from OAW before Feb 1, 2026. Context: recent incident November 2025 where Afghan shooter leads to USCIS pausing processing all immigration applications from Af... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,322 | 623 | null | -1.386294 | 0.5625 |
Will Andhra Pradesh Transmission Corporation (AP-Transco) create a dedicated 'Special Purpose Vehicle' (SPV) or a new task force specifically for the oversight of the 29 planned industrial substations by February 1, 2026? | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to 'Yes' if there is an official announcement from the Andhra Pradesh Energy Department or AP-Transco regarding the formation of a specific administrative body, SPV, or task force aimed at removing 'bottlenecks' and accelerating the construction of these 29 substations as mentioned on November 27,... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 32cb9089-e9b9-4f8e-ad38-e687b8fbcfd0 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "AP-Transco SPV special purpose vehicle industrial substations 29; AP-Transco task force oversight 29 industrial substations; 29 planned industrial substations AP-Transco February 1 2026; Andhra Pradesh industrial substations proj... | strategy_choice | 0.3 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess probability that AP-Transco creates a dedicated SPV or task force for oversight of 29 planned industrial substations by Feb 1 2026. Context given is "Recent news articles relevant to this question:" but empty; we have no specifics. As of Nov 27 2025, there is likely some ... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 490 | 378 | null | -0.356675 | 0.09 |
Will the U.S. Department of Justice formally announce it is seeking the death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal in a federal court filing by March 1, 2026? | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) files a 'Notice of Intent to Seek the Death Penalty' against Rahmanullah Lakanwal in federal court for the shooting of National Guard members described in the text. The filing must be publicly confirmed by March 1, 2026. | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 1 | 1 | 2026-02-05T00:00:00 | 332776a9-0eee-4c57-b7c2-04da9e7c836f | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "",
"search_query": "Rahmanullah Lakanwal death penalty DOJ filing; Rahmanullah Lakanwal federal court filing seeking death penalty; DOJ deadline March 2026 seek death penalty federal case; Lakanwal indictment superseding indictment death penalty not... | strategy_choice | 0.2 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need to assess likelihood DOJ will file notice of intent to seek death penalty for Rahmanullah Lakanwal by March 1 2026.
We have no specific context given: no news articles provided. So unknown. Likely small probability. Typically death penalty sought in federal cases for murder of fed... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 449 | 373 | null | -1.609438 | 0.64 |
Will the United States Department of Justice file a criminal complaint or indictment against Rahmanullah Lakanwal that includes a charge under 18 U.S.C. § 2332b (Acts of terrorism transcending national boundaries) or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B (Providing material support to terrorists) by February 20, 2026? | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | The question resolves to Yes if a federal court filing (complaint, indictment, or information) against Rahmanullah Lakanwal is publicly released by the Department of Justice or accessible via PACER on or before February 20, 2026, containing at least one charge explicitly citing 18 U.S.C. § 2332b or 18 U.S.C. § 2339B. R... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2026-02-20T00:00:00 | 43dd93a4-ab56-434c-ad13-89ea4b81c6b3 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 'We have lost our hope in America': Rep. Mark Alford (published on 2025-11-26 by newsnationnow.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: NewsNation reports two West Virginia National Guard members were critically wounded in a shooting by 29-yea... | strategy_choice | 0.4 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability DOJ will file criminal complaint/indictment with 2332b or 2339B by Feb 20 2026. The context: incident just occurred Nov 26 2025. Lakanwal is Afghan national who shot two National Guard members near White House. FBI investigating as possible terrorism. Already charges in... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 1,440 | 672 | null | -0.510826 | 0.16 |
Will the Governor of São Paulo appoint a candidate other than the first-place finisher, Aluísio Segurado, to the office of Rector of USP for the 2026–2030 term? | 2026-01-25T00:00:00 | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | This question resolves to 'Yes' if Governor Tarcísio de Freitas appoints either Ana Lúcia Duarte Lanna or Marcílio Alves (the second and third-place finishers in the November 27, 2025 election) as the Rector of USP. This is known as 'breaking the tradition' of appointing the most-voted candidate. If Aluísio Segurado (t... | FORWARD_LOOKING_QUESTION | 2025-11-27T00:00:00 | 0 | 1 | 2025-12-05T00:00:00 | 5717f599-3442-4001-87a2-1d4906288d32 | binary | binary | binary_log_score | [
{
"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions wit... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Primeiro ano na USP precisa ser acolhedor, não aterrador, diz candidato à reitoria (published on 2025-11-07 by www1.folha.uol.com.br) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: Aluísio Segurado, professor da Faculdade de Medicina e candidato a reitor... | strategy_choice | 0.2 | 0 | <|channel|>analysis<|message|>We need probability that Governor Tarcísio de Freitas will appoint a candidate other than first-place Aluísio Segurado (i.e., second or third) as rector for term 2026-2030. Context: election held November 27, 2025. Tradition is appointing most-voted candidate. The governor could break trad... | [{"content": "You are a forecasting analyst. Given a question about a future event, your task is to estimate the probability (0.0 to 1.0) that it resolves YES by the close date.\n\nTreat established facts in the context as true and reason forward from them. Treat predictions, projections, or expert opinions within the ... | 0 | 729 | 457 | null | -0.223144 | 0.04 |
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